The card of the summer that was UFC 264 has come and gone, but the UFC calendar keeps turning as UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. Moisés will go off on Saturday on the ESPN family of networks. It will once again return to behind closed doors at the UFC Apex, where the promotion has largely settled in since the pandemic began having one successful event after another.
Before two rising lightweights battle it out in the main event, a pair of women’s bantamweights in Miesha Tate and Marion Reneau will square off in the co-main. In what will be a retirement fight for Reneau and a return flight for Tate, let’s take a closer look at where the value remains.
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Betting Profile: Marion Reneau (9-7-1)
Last Five Fights
With this being the last of a four-fight contract for Reneau, all of which thus far have been losses, the 44-year-old has already announced heading into this one it will be her last professional fight. Her recent losses come after three wins in four fights from 2016-2018, all of which ended before the final bell.
A Black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, Renau comes into this one with a takedown accuracy of 71%, with 33% of her wins in the UFC coming by way of submission.
Betting Profile: Miesha Tate (18-7-0)
Last Five Fights
For former bantamweight champion Miesha Tate, the build-back begins now as she will be ending a 5-year retirement in a quest to get back what she once had. One of the most prominent women fighters to ever grace the octagon, Tate is also a former Strikeforce champion and comes into this fight as decorated as almost any woman with the company.
Prior to retirement following a two-fight slight that began with a first-round loss to Amanda Nunes in their title fight bout, Tate was worth the price of admission almost every night.
Taking a look at the women’s bantamweight record books and Tate’s name is sprinkled throughout, including the third-most total Fight Night bonuses (3), second-most submission averages per 15 minutes (1.31), and third-longest win streak (5).
While both of these fighters are likely past their prime, Tate is certainly more so in striking distance of it and comes back to the sport with a clear mission: redemption. In her first fight back, I think she and her team handpicked Reneau as a stepping stone for what they expect to be a relatively short climb back to a Nunes fight.
Though I’m not so sure how easy it gets from here, I do think the talent disparity, even after being out of the game for five years, is more than enough to get it done here. If we look at similarly long layoffs such as GSP (only one) or Uriah Faber, that first fight back was a great match up stylistically, both wins, and I think we see the same here.
Pick: Miesha Tate -124
Top Prop Bet
Before retiring from the sport, let’s not forget what a killer Tate really was, as 56% of her fights, on the high end for the women’s division, ended via KO/TO or Submission. In a fight she’ll clearly be looking to make a splash with a highlight tape as she begins her climb, I look for Tate to finish this one early if she smells blood.
Pick: Miesha Tate by KO/TKO or Submission +500
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