The UFC returns to ESPN this Saturday at its early time slot as this week’s main event will go off at 7 PM EST. While the main event between Sandhagen and Dillashaw has gotten all the attention, and rightfully so, the co-main should be a great fight as well as a pair of women’s bantamweight will square off.
For Aspen Ladd, Saturday will mark the first time inside the octagon following tearing her ACL and MCL in 2019. Her opponent Macy Chiasson comes into this fight looking for a top-five ranking herself after losing just one fight thus far in her career.
Let’s take a closer look at where the value remains.
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Betting Profile: Aspen Ladd (9-1-0)
Last Five Fights
After losing her only fight as a professional in one of the fastest TKO victories in the women’s division history, Ladd bounced right back with a TKO win of her own against Yana Kunitskaya to put her right back on track for a run at the title.
And then came the massive knee injury.
Heading into Saturday, however, #3 in control time percentage (44.5), Ladd ranks #2 in the shortest average fight time (7.22), and #1 in submission averages per 15 minutes (1.22). As you would expect, she holds the edge in grappling metrics nearly across the board vs. Chiasson.
Betting Profile: Macy Chiasson (8-1-0)
Last Five Fights
With only one professional loss, a unanimous decision result against Lina Lansberg nearly two years ago, Chiasson has bounced back with two dominant performances and comes into this one hunting for a top-five ranking. Originally joining the promotion as a featherweight, the 5’9″ towers over most of her moments and comes into this fight with a 5″ reach advantage.
If she’s able to keep this one off the ground, Chiasson possess a 49.6% significant strike accuracy (#5 in the division) and 2.16 striking differential (#1 in the division) and most notably absorbs less than half of the strikes Ladd does at 2.22 (vs.4.99)
Before her injury, Ladd was undoubtedly on her way to a fight against Nunes, but Chiasson now stands firmly in her way. While it’s clear to see why she’s the favorite both from a strength of the opponent and metric standpoint, one that jumps out to me is takedown defense, where Chiasson (70%) has the edge.
Looking at Ladd’s only loss, it came against an opponent in Germaine de Randamie that is nearly the same size as Chiasson, which completely overwhelmed the much smaller Ladd immediately out of the gates.
If Chiasson can prevent this one from going to the ground, I think her size and recent reps inside the ring (having fought twice since Ladd did last) give her a slightly bigger edge in this one than the current odds indicate.
Pick: Chiasson +190
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