Top NBA Betting Picks for Tuesday, May 4

We have a seven-game slate on tap this evening. The second game of a marquee series between the Milwaukee Bucks and Brooklyn Nets will get underway at 7:30 p.m. ET, and you can tune in via TNT. Our experts are split on both the spread and the total for that matchup.

Here are the top NBA betting plays for Tuesday, May 4, provided by BettingPros experts James Bisson and Isaiah Sirois (Main game odds courtesy BettingPros Consensus; lock and prop odds sites may vary):

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Check out our NBA Prop Bet Cheat Sheet for the top bets of the day >>

Betting Lock of the Day

Sirois: Mavericks +3.5 (-106 at FD Sportsbook)
This is more of a bet against the Heat than a bet on the Mavericks. To begin, my NBA betting model doesn’t see any true locks today, but it does heavily lean Dallas in this matchup for two reasons. First, the efficiency metrics favor Miami by only 0.21 points, a decent margin below the actual spread. Second, the model gives Dallas a 2.6-point edge in overall player WAR (assuming Maxi Kleber plays; if he doesn’t, the advantage falls to exactly 1.0). While WAR doesn’t directly translate into on-court production, it gives the model enough reason to side with the Mavericks. All of that said, this is more of a bet against the Heat because of how they’ve played in Miami. Their 13-18-2 ATS record at home is pretty awful, and they’ve gone 0-3 ATS in their last three home games.

Top Game Prop of the Day

Sirois: Heat Under 109.5 (-108 at FD Sportsbook)
The Heat have averaged 108 points in their last three home games, a notch below this total, except they’ve got a bit of a tougher task ahead of them. The Dallas Mavericks rank as the NBA’s ninth-slowest team, so while their defense hasn’t been especially efficient, it’s still tough to put up points against them. They give up the ninth-fewest per game (110). Since the Heat play at the third-slowest pace and score the fourth-fewest points per game (107), I expect them to stay under this total again tonight. That said, pay close attention to Maxi Kleber’s status before tip-off — if he sits, I don’t consider this play as safe.

Top Player Prop of the Day 

Sirois: Kyrie Irving Over 2.5 Made Threes (-132 at FD Sportsbook)
I usually target plus-money props because I see them as more valuable, but there is a surprising amount of value on this line despite the juice. Sure, Irving only hit two three-pointers in Brooklyn’s last game against the Bucks. However, the Nets racked up a whopping 17 made threes, including seven from Kevin Durant and two from Blake Griffin. That’s because the Bucks have forgotten how to play perimeter defense — they give up the second-most made threes per game (14.5), including the second-most over the last three (17.3). I’m targeting Irving over Durant because of the moderately better juice and because the Bucks give up the most made threes per game to point guards (3.4).

Check out our NBA Prop Bet Cheat Sheet for the top bets of the day >>

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