Top NBA Betting Picks for Tuesday, May 11

Congratulations to Russell Westbrook! The Wizard now owns the all-time record for career triple-doubles (109), and I’m sure we’ll see plenty more out of the 32-year-old star. We won’t get to see him action tonight, but value abounds on the evening’s betting card.

Here are the top NBA betting plays for Tuesday, May 11, provided by BettingPros experts Raju Byfield and Isaiah Sirois (Main game odds courtesy BettingPros Consensus; lock and prop odds sites may vary):

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Check out our NBA Prop Bet Cheat Sheet for the top bets of the day >>

Betting Lock of the Day

Sirois: Heat -2 (-106 at FD Sportsbook)
I do not believe that the Boston Celtics have the depth required to cover this spread. They lost to Miami by a six-point margin on Sunday despite a point differential of +20 in the second half, and the Heat will retain the upper hand, as Robert Williams won’t be able to suit up with a toe injury. The Celtics are on a two-game losing skid, which includes a 22-point loss to the Bulls, and a blowout of similar proportions could be in the works tonight. The Heat have every incentive to dominate here, as a win over Boston would almost certainly ensure that Miami will avoid the play-in tournament. Also, Miami has been the fourth-best defensive team on the road this year, which has helped them earn a winning record against the spread on road trips this season. 

Top Game Prop of the Day

Sirois: Heat First Quarter -0.5 (-110 at FD Sportsbook)
The Heat got out to a 13-point lead in the first quarter of Sunday’s matchup, and I suspect that we’ll see something similar take place tonight. Miami may only score the 18th-most points per first quarter on the year (28.1), but they rank fifth over the last three games (34.1). In contrast, Boston ranks 22nd on the year (27.5) and 17th over that span (30). Also, the Heat rank sixth in points allowed per first quarter on the year (27.5), while the Celtics rank below them in 12th (28.2). 

Top Player Prop of the Day 

Sirois: Nikola Jokic Over 11.5 Rebounds (+104 at FD Sportsbook)
Here’s a plus-money prop that I love for tonight. Jokic may only average 10.8 rebounds per game, and he may have only surpassed this total in 38% of his games this season. That’s fine — the Charlotte Hornets surrender the second-most rebounds per game to centers (16.8), and their rebounding has only gotten worse recently. Over their last three games, they have allowed opponents to nab the second-most total boards per game (59.3) in the NBA. Miles Bridges and Gordon Hayward, their third- and fourth-best rebounders, will remain on out for this matchup, so I expect their struggles on the glass to continue. 

Check out our NBA Prop Bet Cheat Sheet for the top bets of the day >>

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