Top NBA Betting Picks for Saturday, May 15

The NBA has given us a wild six games on a Saturday afternoon, leaving just the Miami Heat and Milwaukee Bucks for prime time. Knowing the injury report inside and out has become critical at this juncture of the season, so be sure to check on statuses before locking anything in.

Here are the top NBA betting plays for Saturday, May 15, provided by BettingPros experts Raju Byfield and Isaiah Sirois (Main game odds courtesy BettingPros Consensus; lock and prop odds sites may vary):

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Check out our NBA Prop Bet Cheat Sheet for the top bets of the day >>

Betting Lock of the Day

Sirois: Heat -3.5 (-110 at FD Sportsbook)
The Miami Heat will be looking to make a statement tonight against a Milwaukee Bucks team they could end up meeting in the first round. The Heat proved last season that they had a recipe to stop the Bucks in the playoffs, and a win tonight could help them avoid having to find out if the same plan of attack will work with Jrue Holiday now in tow for Milwaukee. Miami has more to play for tonight, so expect playoff level competitiveness from a team that will be much more comfortable with a first round date against the Atlanta Hawks. Tap the Heat at one unit once the inactive list is finalized. 

Top Game Prop of the Day

Byfield: Suns 1st Quarter Under 29.5 Points (-130 at FD Sportsbook)
Before seeing the number, I targeted this game prop as a potential over play. However, being listed at 29.5 against a San Antonio Spurs team that has allowed 28.9 first quarter points per game on the season gave some reason for pause. When you add that the Suns have locked up the Pacific division and will be without Cameron Johnson and quite possibly Deandre Ayton, a first quarter letdown could be in the cards. At 28.5, the under would still have been the sharp play, so the extra point is a bonus. Speaking of sharp, the sharp action has come almost exclusively on the under, as the Suns are pretty much locked into the playoff positioning and have no reason to risk their stars for a prolonged period of time. Tap the under for one unit. 

Top Player Prop of the Day 

Byfield: Jarrett Allen Over 10.5 Rebounds (-110 at FD Sportsbook)
Adebayo is one of the top passing big men in the NBA, but the 5.5 assist line has been set a little high. Bam is averaging 5.4 assists on the season, but a closer look at his game log reveals peaks and valleys rather than steady contribution. He has hit six or more assists just four times in his last 10 contests. The number stays at four if we expand the sample to his last 18 contests. Bam is averaging seven assists against Miami this season, but that is due to following up a four assist performance with a 10 assist outburst. Another thing to factor into our decision-making regarding this prop is that Jimmy Butler did not play either game against Milwaukee this season. Butler’s presence on the floor undoubtedly decreases Adebayo’s usage rate. While the rationale for the under suggests a potential two-unit play, the probability suggests keeping it at one. 

Check out our NBA Prop Bet Cheat Sheet for the top bets of the day >>

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