Top Euro 2020 Picks for Tuesday, June 29th (2021)

After one of the most exciting days in recent European tournament memory, we’re back on Tuesday with an absolutely fantastic opening game. Germany will head to Wembley Stadium to take on the local English squad after surviving the ‘Group of Death,’ and once that match wraps up, Ukraine will do battle with Sweden for the right to move on to the quarterfinals.

The headline match is obviously Germany vs. England, but don’t change the channel when that game is over. Ukraine and Sweden, while it doesn’t boast the star power of the earlier clash, features two teams playing with house money who are hungry to move on and play one of the powerhouses of Europe; expect fireworks.

These matches will not only be fun to watch but will be even more exciting to bet. Here are my best bets for each game on Tuesday afternoon.

Germany vs. England: Euro 2020 Odds & Game Pick >>

Germany vs. England

I’m sure neither team expected to have a legitimate chance of being eliminated in the Round of 16, but here we are. Germany should be the sharper team early on; they played the tougher competition of the two teams and will be ready to battle another world-class opponent. 

The Germans were extremely tactical in the group stage; they connected on a tournament-best 89.7% of their passes and controlled possession 61.3% of the time. They’ve got the attackers to create chances, but can they finally crack the so-far impenetrable wall that’s been the English back end? They’ll certainly need to try because they’ve allowed five goals in just three games, and despite scoring just two goals of their own, England won’t waste chances in this one.

England certainly has a home-field advantage; the crowd should be majority English fans considering it’s being played at Wembley Stadium in London. And I think England’s style of play actually combats Germany’s quite well. The Germans will want to play a heavy attacking style, and one deflection or broken play can and will lead to a counterattack the other way in England’s favor. 

Above all, I think England wins this game, but I’m not so confident it’ll happen within the 90-minute window. This game should be extremely closely contested; neither team wants to go home this early in the knockout stage. Both sides have the skill and talent to dictate tempo, and there will be a chess match, or ‘game within the game.’ All the mid-game adjustments will make the game flow choppy and prevent either side from really dominating for long stretches.

Both teams are also strong in terms of possession. As mentioned earlier, Germany controlled 61.3% of possession in the group stage, and England was right behind them at 56.3%. Such a closely contested game between two world-class teams will require penalty kicks, so I’ll place a half unit on a draw at +220, and since I think England ultimately prevails, I’ll place another half unit on England -130 to advance.

The Picks: Draw (+220); England to Advance (-130)

Ukraine vs. Sweden: Euro 2020 Odds & Game Pick >>

Ukraine vs. Sweden

As I mentioned in the intro, I anticipate this game being a really exciting one between two teams who quite honestly have absolutely nothing to lose and everything to gain. Sweden is the more talented side, but if they show up expecting to win, Ukraine will exploit them and will make advancing anything but easy.

Ukraine had better metrics in the group stage than Sweden, and I think that’s part of the reason we’re getting such solid odds on the Swedes to win this one within the 90-minute window. Ukraine controlled 47.8% of possession in the round-robin stage compared to a dismal 35.3% for Sweden. Ukraine also out shot Sweden on a per-game basis – 9.7 to 9.3 – and was one of the most accurate passing teams in the tournament (83.5%). Sweden, on the other hand, connected on just 69.9% of their passes.

Despite that, Sweden has the talent up and down the pitch to pull away from Ukraine, and I don’t see how Ukraine can slow them down once the floodgates start to crack. Ukraine has dropped two of their three matches, with their lone victory coming against a North Macedonia squad that was a heavy underdog in every game they suited up for. While the metrics were solid, the level of competition really wasn’t, nor was the output on the score sheet.

Most goals scored at the 2020 European Championships:

🇵🇹 Cristiano Ronaldo (5)
🇨🇿 Patrik Schick (4)
🇳🇱 Gini Wijnaldum (3)
🇧🇪 Romelu Lukaku (3)
🇸🇪 Emil Forsberg (3)
🇵🇱 Robert Lewandowski (3)

Golden Boot *and* Goal of the Tournament on the cards? 🧐 pic.twitter.com/Hm5pwL4jLG

— William Hill (@WilliamHill) June 27, 2021

Sweden has players like Emil Forsberg, who has already scored three times and is just +250 to bury his fourth goal on Tuesday, and once fatigue starts setting in, it’s going to be hard for Ukraine to keep him and his mates in check. Both of Monday’s matches needed extra time, and I’m already predicting the first match on Tuesday will require the same, but Sweden should have no problem taking Ukraine down within the allotted 90 minutes. We’re getting solid value on them at +145 to do so, and that’s exactly the wager I’ll make in this one.

The Pick: Sweden ML (+145)

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