I hope that you’re enjoying late-night sports betting action as much as I am! The 2020 Tokyo Olympics have been a treat for night owls and early birds alike, as the time difference pushes most of the action into the wee hours of the morning here in the United States.
That difference means that I may publish this article at odd times depending upon when each event will get underway. Yesterday’s lock, Belgium (WBB) +8, remains in play at the time of publication because the game won’t start until 4:20 a.m. ET on Tuesday. However, the picks below will all lock much earlier than that, so make sure to get your action down soon!
Get a sign-up bonus up to $1,000 at DraftKings Sportsbook >>
Olympic Lock of the Day: Iran +42 | Men’s Basketball | -120 at DK Sportsbook
The United States enters their game against Iran after a disastrous loss to France. While I don’t doubt that they’ll take out their frustrations by blowing out an unimpressive Iranian squad, I’m skeptical that they’ll cover this massive spread.
My doubts rest in how rare blowouts of this magnitude have been. We saw just six wins by 43 points or more in the 2019 FIBA World Cup (92 games), and just two blowouts of that scale took place in the 2016 Rio Olympics (38 games). And although Team USA was responsible for three of those eight performances, two of them came in 2016, before Gregg Popovich took over coaching duties for the squad.
Iran hasn’t looked great in international play, but they have managed to keep games close. In the 2019 World Cup, Iran never lost by more than 12 points. They even played a tight game versus Spain, the eventual tournament winners, as they lost by just eight. Iran also blew out the Philippines, who were on the losing end of two of the six aforementioned blowouts at the tournament.
Also, Iran played well in their first game. They scored an impressive 32 points in the fourth quarter, and while they lost by six, they still beat the spread by ten. Look for them to cover again, this time over a messy, disorganized Team USA.
Other Olympic Betting Picks
#1. Nigeria -4.5 | Men’s Basketball | -105 at DK Sportsbook
I considered making this play the lock of the day, but I sided with the line above instead. Nigeria played an impressive game against the Australian Boomers earlier this week, and while they went on to lose by 17 points, they were down by just three at the half. They recorded an impressive 14 steals that bodes well for their chances against Italy and Germany. In contrast, the Germans suffered a 10-point loss to Italy after building up a 10-point lead in the first quarter. The ridiculous three-point shooting percentage (46.9) that propelled them to 82 points should fall off considerably here — they shot just 30.5% in qualifying play, after all. Also, Nigeria finished 17th in the 2019 World Cup, one spot ahead of a German squad that still had Dennis Schröder on the roster.
#2. South Korea | Men’s Team Sabre | -150 at DK Sportsbook
South Korea should continue its reign of dominance in the men’s team sabre event. They have won three straight world championships, with victories over Hungary (2017), Italy (2018), and Hungary (2019). The sportsbooks have those squads as the next-best contenders, with Hungary (+500) having slightly better odds than Italy (+550) due to Hungarian Áron Szilágyi’s gold medal in the individual competition.
However, South Korea’s Oh Sang-uk sits well above Hungary’s Szilágyi in the world rankings. He didn’t have a chance to face Szilágyi in individual competition, as a surprise loss to Georgia’s Sandro Bazadze in the quarterfinals knocked him out of medal contention. It’s also worth noting that South Korea’s team (Oh, Kim Jung-hwan, and Gu Bon-gil) has a total score of 558 in the rankings, and the three teammates all rank inside the global top 10. In contrast, Hungary’s team (Szilágyi, András Szatmári, and Tamás Decsi) has a score of 328.5, and only Szilágyi ranks inside the global top 10. None but Szilágyi escaped the Round of 32 in individual action. Meanwhile, the Italian team (Luca Curatoli, Enrico Berrè, and Luigi Samele) has a score of 377, and two of their fencers made it to the quarterfinals, just like South Korea.
#3. South Korea / Italy | Men’s Team Sabre | -150 (.8u) / +550 (.2u) at DK Sportsbook
If you’re interested in a unique unit structure to exploit the sportsbooks’ inflation of Hungary’s odds, consider placing .8 units on South Korea and .2 on Italy. That way, you’d profit .33 units if South Korea wins gold and .3u if Italy wins instead. The implied odds of one of those two squads winning (75%) are low enough for me to find value here — both nations have podiumed in the last three world championships, and they both had multiple athletes in the quarterfinals of individual competition.
Join the BettingPros Discord Chat for Live Betting Advice >>
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts
Whether you’re new to sports betting or a betting pro, our How To Bet and Sports Betting Strategy and Advice pages are for you. You can get started with our Sports Betting 101 Section — including 10 Sports Betting Tips for Beginners — or head to more advanced sports betting strategy — like Key Numbers When Betting Against the Spread — to learn more.
Isaiah Sirois is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Isaiah, check out his archive and follow him @is_sirois.
The post Top 3 Olympics Betting Picks for Tuesday, July 27th (2021) appeared first on BettingPros.