After yesterday’s action, things aren’t looking so hot for the Miami Heat. Journeyman center Dewayne Dedmon led the team in scoring in the 34-point loss, and Miami will need to right the ship quickly if they want to stay alive in the postseason.
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1. Lakers Under 105.5 | -108 at FD Sportsbook
The Lakers suffered a nine-point loss to the Suns on Sunday, and they only managed to score 90 points in the process. That lines up with their regular-season performance versus the Suns — they recorded totals of 104 (Mar. 2), 94 (Mar. 21), and 123* (May 9). The early-May game is a bit misleading, however, as the Suns had much less to play for seeding-wise than the Lakers. The two teams also played that game in Los Angeles, not Phoenix.
We have yet to see the Lakers score more than 94 points in Phoenix this season. The numbers suggest that they struggle to put up points on the road, as their full-game over percentage on road trips sits at just 33.3%. That’s the worst such mark in the NBA.
The Lakers certainly could bounce back with a strong showing tonight, but even if they manage to cover as 1.5-point favorites, I suspect that they won’t surpass this total in the process.
2. Nets First Quarter Under 29.5 | -120 at FD Sportsbook
The juice on this play isn’t friendly, but it isn’t awful for a play that hasn’t busted once this year. The Nets swept the regular-season series against the Celtics, but they recorded modest first-quarter totals of 26 (Dec. 25), 23 (Mar. 11), and 21 (Apr. 23) in the process. They only managed to score 16 first-quarter points in Game 1, too.
I’m not sure why Brooklyn starts so slowly against Boston, but the season-long trends also point to some value here. The Celtics allow the 10th-fewest points per first quarter (27.8), well below this total. While the Nets rank eighth-best in points per first quarter (29.3), that figure still sits below where this total has been set.
The Nets have a decent chance to clear their full-game team total, but if the past is any indication, they should underperform in the game’s opening frame.
3. Tim Hardaway Jr. Over 2.5 Made Threes | -122 at FD Sportsbook
Like the play above, the juice here isn’t great. But also like the play above, this one hasn’t busted all year. In his three regular-season outings against the Clippers this year, Tim Hardaway Jr. hit four (Dec. 27), five (Mar. 15), and three (Mar. 17) three-point shots. He also sunk five of them in Game 1.
Of course, just because something has happened before doesn’t mean that it will happen again. However, consistency does point to value, and Hardaway’s average made threes per game against the Clippers (4.3) sits well above this total. I believe that insulates him from regression somewhat — even if the Clippers regress back to their season-long averages with regards to perimeter defense, Hardaway can cash this prop with a below-average showing.
It’s also worth noting that Hardaway averaged 3.0 made threes per game in the regular season and 4.0 per game since the start of May. He recorded at least three made shots from deep in 55.7% of his games this year, a notch better than the implied odds of this line (55%), too.
Longshot Bet of the Day: Tim Hardaway Jr. Over 3.5 Made Threes | +225 at FD Sportsbook
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