Happy Memorial Day Weekend! If you’re looking to enjoy some basketball (and make some money) during the long weekend, here are the top NBA props for today’s four-game slate. The action will get underway at 1 p.m. ET with the Hawks and Knicks tipping off in Atlanta, and I’ve found a pair of bets to target in that matchup.
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1. Knicks +5 | -114 at FD Sportsbook
Trae Young and the Hawks surprised me in Game 1, but I haven’t lost faith in the Knicks quite yet. At 46-28-1, New York ranks as the NBA’s best team against the spread to date, and they helped us make a lot of money in the regular season. With the Hawks heavily favored — and 54% of the public backing Atlanta — I think I’ll side with the sharp money and take New York to cover.
The Knicks have routinely exceeded expectations. Their NBA-best record against the spread is a testament to strong performances both on the road and at home, as they rank third in away games in fourth for home games. I would be remiss to overlook the fact that Atlanta ranks first against the spread at home, but the Knicks beat them here in the regular season, and State Farm Arena isn’t as menacing as Madison Square Garden.
I’m also riding the Knicks because Julius Randle and R.J. Barrett are due for some positive regression. Barrett shot 44.1% from the field in the regular season but has gone 34.2% in this series; likewise, Randle shot 45.6% in the regular season but has shot just 30% through Game 3. While playoff jitters are real, I suspect that the key players responsible for New York’s surprising season will turn things around in a crucial Game 4.
2. Julius Randle Over 10.5 Rebounds | -104 at FD Sportsbook
Randle has gone over this total in every game this series, yet the juice sits on the under heading into Game 4. He has recorded totals of 12 (Game 1), 12 (Game 2), and 11 (Game 3), and with New York now down a game, he’ll have every incentive to keep playing aggressively on the glass.
This year’s Most Improved Player also played three regular-season games against the Hawks, and he cashed the over in two of those matchups, too. He posted totals of 17 (Jan. 4), 9 (Feb. 15), and 11 (Apr. 21). So across his six games against the Hawks, Randle has averaged 12 rebounds per game, which points to some solid betting value.
Of course, the Hawks are one of the NBA’s better rebounding teams, as they allow the seventh-fewest total boards to their opponents. However, they do give up the 13th-most rebounds per game to power forwards (10.4) despite playing at the association’s eighth-slowest pace. That also points to a bit of value on this prop.
3. Lakers Second Quarter Under 26.5 | -108 at FD Sportsbook
If you’ve read my work all year, you’ll know that I pick up on some weird trends. This prop is no exception — the Los Angeles Lakers haven’t cleared this second-quarter threshold against the Suns once all series!
The Lakers have compiled second-quarter totals of 20 (Game 1), 23 (Game 2), and 16 (Game 3). Although we see a different picture when we look at these teams’ regular-season meetings, as the Lakers posted 32 (Mar 2.), 18 (Mar. 21), and 29 (May 9) second-quarter points, they played those games with different rosters and less to lose (except on May 9, when the Suns had less to lose).
Ultimately, I like this prop because the public always expects lots of points from the Lakers, which is keeping this total four points above anything they have accomplished in this series. It also helps that Los Angeles has the worst full-game over percentage (37.8%) on the year.
Today’s Plus-Money Prop: Lakers Second Quarter Alt Under 23.5 | +215 at FD Sportsbook
Check out our NBA Prop Bet Cheat Sheet for the top bets of the day >>
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