We’ve got a thrilling Game 7 between the Los Angeles Clippers and the Dallas Mavericks on tap today, and my plays for this slate come exclusively from that matchup. Note that today’s action will wrap up early, as that game tips off at 3:30 p.m. ET.
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1. Tim Hardaway Over 3.5 Made Threes | +126 at FD Sportsbook
Tim Hardaway has been a three-point machine against the Clippers. In this series, he has gone 5-11 (Game 1), 6-8 (Game 2), 4-6 (Game 3), 0-4 (Game 4), 3-10 (Game 5), and 4-11 (Game 6). He also played well against the Clippers in the regular season, as he went 4-8 (Dec. 27), 5-9 (Mar. 15), and 3-7 (Mar. 17). That’s good for 3.6 made threes per game in the playoffs and 3.8 made threes per game overall.
The fact that this is a road game points to even more value on Hardaway’s three-point prop. His best playoff games have consistently come on the road, and in this series, he is averaging 4.7 made threes per game in the Staples Center.
Yet despite all of that, you’ll find his three-point prop well in the plus money. Look for him to heat back up in a must-win game for the Mavs.
2. Clippers Fourth Quarter -0.5 | -110 at FD Sportsbook
I feel a little weird about recommending a fourth-quarter prop before a game even begins, but this line has held consistent value throughout the series. The Clippers have gone 5-1 in the fourth quarter so far, and they haven’t lost the frame since Game 1.
Some meaningful averages point to value on this prop as well. The Clippers allow the fifth-fewest points per fourth quarter (25.9), but the Mavericks give up just the 14th-fewest (27.2) — a gap of 1.3, much wider than this spread. Similarly, the Clipper score the 13th-most points per fourth quarter (27.3), but the Mavericks rank just 21st (26.5). Again, that margin (0.8) also points to value here.
Of course, the Clippers could get out to a big lead early and not have to worry about fourth-quarter offense. But given everything we’ve seen in this series, they’re more likely to need a late-game comeback, which would help cash this prop.
3. Nicolas Batum Over 8.5 Points | -120 at FD Sportsbook
The Clippers have been able to rely on Batum this series. The talented big man has averaged exactly nine points per game, clearing this total in four of six. With Serge Ibaka likely to remain on the sidelines, Batum should continue playing consistent minutes — especially if the Clippers continue to move away from Ivica Zubac.
The home and away splits point to some value here, too. Batum has surpassed this total in each of his home games this series, recording totals of 11 (Game 1), 9 (Game 2), and 10 (Game 5).
Although the juice is already on the over, this prop is safe enough to warrant a less friendly line. Batum probably won’t clear this total by much, but his past performances in this series suggest that he’ll clear it nonetheless.
Today’s Plus-Money Prop: Clippers Fourth Quarter -4.5 | +200 at FD Sportsbook
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