As anyone familiar with sports betting knows, there are ebbs and flows where some weeks you feel you cannot lose a bet and some weeks where nothing seems to go your way. We entered Friday of last week up more than ten units, but briefly went through an 0-5 slump that saw our profits cut in half. We rebounded nicely with a 2-1 winning day yesterday, and start a path back towards +10 units and beyond.
Here are my MLB top betting plays for Wednesday. (Odds courtesy DraftKings Sportsbook)
View the best player prop bets for today’s slate with our MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>
YTD: 75-62-3 (+6.41 units)
New York Mets -1.5 runs (+104)
While it was not the most splashy move the New York Mets made in the offseason, few would argue that the addition of Taijuan Walker has not been the most important. Walker (4-2, 2.17 ERA) was tagged for four runs (three earned) in five innings in his last start in San Diego, which matched a season-high. Before that start, he had allowed just one earned run over his previous 22 innings. With Baltimore’s offense not in the same stratosphere as San Diego’s, expect a solid bounce-back start from Walker.
Walker’s dominant 22-inning stretch spanned four starts, including a home win over the Orioles on May 12th. In that start, Walker held Baltimore to one earned run on four hits over seven innings. Walker has allowed at least three walks in two of his last four starts but has consistently escaped trouble thanks to a .181 OBA and finished the month of May with just a .156 OBA.
New York gets their second look at former teammate Matt Harvey tonight, who they roughed up for seven earned runs in 4.1 innings in that same May 12th game. Five starts ago, Harvey’s ERA was at a season-low 3.60. However, he has allowed 24 earned runs in his last 18.2 innings, which has caused his ERA to skyrocket. Harvey was limited to just three innings in his previous start against the Twins since he was working on three day’s rest, and it is fair to say his routine is all screwed up.
The Mets have been “kings of the little people,” posting a 25-12 record versus teams below .500 but a 4-12 record against teams over .500. Baltimore certainly qualifies as a losing team, as they own the American League’s worst winning percentage. Look for New York to once again flex their muscles against weaker competition.
Boston Red Sox Team Total OVER 5.5 runs (+117)
Last week we cited the fact that the Boston Red Sox were likely to hit Houston Astros starter Jake Odorizzi hard and cashed their team total over in the seventh inning. They face Odorizzi again for the second time in six days, this time at home. Thus, do not expect the results to be too different.
Odorizzi (0-3, 7.16 ERA) is making just his third start since coming off the IL. None of his numbers are inspiring, including his .262 OBA and 1.47 WHIP. He does not possess much in his arsenal that overpowers hitters, as evidenced by his 17:7 K:BB ratio. After Odorizzi was tagged for three runs in three innings by Boston last week, he now has a 4-7 record and 4.84 ERA in 19 career starts against the Red Sox.
Boston’s bats have stayed hot since facing Odorizzi, as they have averaged 5.8 runs per game before yesterday’s series opener with the Astros. The fact that they are favored to win tonight’s home game means we may only get eight innings of their bats, but this wager is all about their likelihood of doing damage to the opposing starting pitcher for as long as he is in the game.
Cincinnati Reds ML (+102)
The Cincinnati Reds put the rest of the NL Central teams on notice with a four-game road sweep of the Cardinals over the weekend. While many were projecting the division to be a three-team race between the Brewers, Cubs, and Cardinals, the Reds are within striking distance at five games back of first place. They have won four of their last five game, and look to stay hot against the Brewers tonight.
Rookie Vladimir Gutierrez has been impressive in his first two big-league starts, going 1-1 with a 2.70 ERA. He has allowed just five total hits and has a .147 OBA through his first ten innings. The most impressive thing is both of his starts came on the road against two of the best teams in the division (Cubs, Cardinals), and he gives his team a great chance to knock off the Brewers, who are yet another team in the division they are chasing.
The Brewers entered Tuesday’s series opener with a disappointing .211/.297/.371 slash line offensively but have gotten to first place in the division mainly on the backs of their rotation’s “big three” in Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff, and Freddy Peralta. Tonight’s starter is not one of their frontline arms, as Brett Anderson has pitched to a 4.42 ERA while winning just two of his first nine starts. The Reds are 5-0 in their last five games against a left-handed starter, so look for them to take advantage of one of Milwaukee’s weaker arms.
MLB Prop Bets
Yordan Alvarez Prop Bet Odds
Freddie Freeman Prop Bet Odds
Ozzie Albies Prop Bet Odds
Nathan Eovaldi Prop Bet Odds
Alex Bregman Prop Bet Odds
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