In honor of Kyle Schwarbers’s and Shohei Ohtani’s recent tear, we are making our first player prop bet of the season in this article. No, we are not wagering on Schwarber or Ohtani to homer today, but bettors that wagered on them to homer every day recently are up a lot of money right now.
Since June 20, 2021
If you took Schwarber and Ohtani homer props you’re +22.7u
If you parlayed them each to Homer every night you could you’re up +47u
— Bets Stats (@betsstats) June 30, 2021
Instead, we focus on a pitcher’s strikeout prop against a team that has struggled to put the ball in play lately. Though we have done well to this point betting moneylines and totals, it is worth dabbling into other areas that still provide value and success opportunities.
Here are my MLB top betting plays for Wednesday. (Odds courtesy DraftKings Sportsbook)
View the best player prop bets for today’s slate with our MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>
YTD: 97-83-3 (+4.95 units)
Corbin Burnes OVER Strikeouts (Odds Not Yet Posted)
The Chicago Cubs have lost five straight games, and a big reason is that they have struggled to put their bats on the ball. Chicago has struck out at least 12 times as a team in each game during their losing streak. As Jesse Rogers explained on Twitter, their offensive struggles in June have been historic.
From @ESPNStatsInfo: This is the 2nd time this month the Cubs have struck out 15 times in consecutive games. They struck out 15 times in consecutive games only 2 times over the last 100 years prior to 2021
— Jesse Rogers (@JesseRogersESPN) June 28, 2021
The Cubs have the fourth-most strikeouts as a team and now face Milwaukee’s Corbin Burnes, who ranks in the top ten in the majors with 115 strikeouts. Burnes does not yet have enough innings to qualify for the SO/9 innings leaderboard, but if he did, his 13.95 would rank second behind only Jacob deGrom. Burnes has struck out current Cubs hitters a combined 23 times in 63 plate appearances, equating to more than one strikeout per inning. Considering Burnes has thrown at least six innings in five of his last seven starts, he is a good bet to surpass his strikeout total today.
Colorado Rockies First Five Innings ML (-180)
Colorado Rockies starting pitcher Jon Gray (4-6, 3.97) has pitched poorly over his last seven starts, going 1-4 with a 4.81 ERA and 1.31 WHIP. The “glass half full” view would give Gray a pass for these performances, considering that five of those seven games came against some of the best teams in baseball (Giants, Padres twice, Athletics, Brewers). One of those starts was a road start against the Pirates, who tagged him for three runs in three innings in the first game of a doubleheader. Manager Bud Black cited Gray’s lack of velocity and control of his fastball, which may have been because of right elbow soreness that caused him to miss his next start. However, after three weeks off, Gray turned in his best performance of the season in his last start, when he held the Brewers scoreless over five innings while striking out ten on the road.
The first five innings odds make the most sense considering Black, and the Rockies’ coaching staff may be cautious with Gray in just his second start back from injury. The Rockies face Pittsburgh’s Chad Kuhl (2-4, 5.05), who has a 6.04 ERA in six road starts. Kuhl has completed five innings just twice in his six road starts, and the team has been winning after five innings in just one of his last five road starts.
The Rockies are 5-0 in Gray’s last five starts as a favorite. Thus, it is advised to take the bullpens out of the equation and let him carry you to a win after five innings.
San Diego Padres -1.5 runs (-118)
The San Diego Padres have won ten of their last 11 games, including their last nine against teams with a winning record. They have covered the runline in six of those wins, so laying the extra -1.5 runs tonight is worth the added risk for the more significant returns.
San Diego’s Joe Musgrove (4-6, 2.22) has had some hard luck in his last seven games, going just 1-2 while pitching to a minuscule 1.54 ERA. Musgrove entered Tuesday ranked 13th in the majors with 10.91 K/9 and seventh with a .223 BABIP. He should be able to outclass Cincinnati’s Vladimir Gutierrez (3-2, 3.97), who is making just his seventh career start. This is Gutierrez’s second time facing the Padres, who tagged him for a season-high five runs on eight hits in five innings. Gutierrez also walked a season-high four batters at Petco Park, as the Padres hitters showed a patient and disciplined approach at the plate.
The Padres have won each of the last four meetings against the Reds, so do not be cautious when laying the -1.5 runs.
MLB Prop Bets
Aaron Nola Prop Bet Odds
Jake Cronenworth Prop Bet Odds
Dylan Cease Prop Bet Odds
Charlie Blackmon Prop Bet Odds
Anthony Rendon Prop Bet Odds
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