All 30 teams take the field on an action-packed Tuesday, one day removed from a three-game Major League Baseball slate. Of the notable series starting today, the Braves and Phillies look to keep within striking distance of the first-place Mets in the NL East, while the Red Sox and Astros meet in a possible playoff preview. From an individual standpoint, Cleveland’s Shane Bieber and Tampa Bay’s Tyler Glasnow get another opportunity to add to their American League Cy Young candidacy.
Do any of these games catch our eye from a betting perspective?
Here are my MLB top betting plays for Tuesday. (Odds courtesy DraftKings Sportsbook)
View the best player prop bets for today’s slate with our MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>
YTD: 73-61-3 (+5.56 units)
Braves-Phillies OVER 9 runs (+100)
The Atlanta Braves and Philadelphia Phillies rank eighth and 19th respectively in terms of runs per game. However, the Phillies have been ravaged by injuries lately, as Bryce Harper, Didi Gregorius, J.T. Realmuto, and Scott Kingery have spent time on the IL. The good news is that the Phillies are the healthiest they have been in weeks, with Gregorius the only significant bat still missing from Philadelphia’s lineup. Before Bryce Harper returned to the lineup this weekend, the Phillies had scored more than three runs just once in their previous eight games. Since Harper returned, they have averaged 8.5 runs per game over the last two games.
Atlanta’s offense has been raking all season but has averaged 4.9 runs per game over their last seven games despite facing some of the league’s best pitching in the Nationals and Dodgers over the last week. The Braves rank sixth in the majors with a .746 OPS and 12th in total bases.
Each team faces starting pitchers who have had their share of troubles this year. Atlanta’s Drew Smyly (2-3, 5.98 ERA) has been burned by the long ball this year, as his 2.70 home runs per nine innings are on pace to be the worst of any starter in the league. The Phillies tagged Smyly for two home runs, and five total runs over five innings in his first appearance against them this series. Philadelphia’s Aaron Nola (4-4, 3.84 ERA) has not pitched like the ace that the team expected him to be this year. He pitched to a 4.55 ERA in five May starts and has allowed at least three earned runs in four of his last five starts.
The over is 6-1 in the Phillies’ last seven home games against a left-handed starter and is 5-1 in the last six head-to-head meetings between these teams. Look for another high-scoring contest in tonight’s series opener.
Detroit Tigers ML (-118)
Considering the Detroit Tigers are just 24-35 and own the worst run differential in the American League, they must be encouraged by their 6-5 record in the last 11 games. They have not played a cupcake schedule in that time, as their schedule has been loaded with playoff contenders like the Indians, Yankees, Brewers, and White Sox. By comparison, a three-game home series against the Seattle Mariners should feel like a walk in the park.
Seattle is one of the league’s worst road teams at 13-17. They rank 19th or worse in batting average, BABIP, and OPS in road games. Their pitching is worse on the road, as their staff has pitched to a 5.28 ERA in road games, ranking 29th in the majors.
Detroit faces Seattle’s Marco Gonzales (1-3, 5.01 ERA), who was limited to just 50 pitches in his last start. Tonight marks his second start since returning from the IL, and he should once again be on a pitch count, which means the Tigers will get to tee off on the Mariners’ 20th ranked bullpen. The over is 4-1 in Detroit’s last five games against a left-handed starter, so their offense can be counted upon for plenty of offense in this one.
Detroit has won four of their last five games against Seattle and is 5-2 in their previous seven home games against teams with a losing record. The Tigers have been playing much better baseball of late, but I am not sure that is reflected in the oddsmakers’ line tonight.
Blue Jays-White Sox OVER 8 runs (-112)
The Toronto Blue Jays and Chicago White Sox each have left-handed starters going tonight, which means we should be in for plenty of offense. Chicago ranks first in the majors in OPS and second in BABIP against left-handed starters. The Toronto Blue Jays hit a home run every 24.20 at-bats against lefties (ranks eighth in the majors) and rank in the top-14 in the majors in both batting average and OPS against lefties.
Chicago’s Carlos Rodon (5-2, 1.98 ERA) has been tough to score upon all season but does not come into this start with great momentum. He was tagged for five runs in six innings in his last start against Cleveland, including surrendering a season-high three home runs. Toronto’s Robbie Ray (3-2, 3.57 ERA) has allowed at least four earned runs in two of his last four starts, and his road ERA is 4.23 in five starts, which is much worse than his 2.97 ERA at home.
These two teams have a combined over/under record of 7-15 after an off day, and the under is 4-1 in their last five meetings. However, we feel we are getting value in a low total due to these trends. Thus, we are backing the over based on each lineup’s success against lefties throughout the season.
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