Around this time last week, we wrote about the numerous long losing streaks that bettors had at their disposal to fade. Since that time, the Diamondbacks and Orioles have ended their historically long losing streaks. We enter today’s action with just one team (Kansas City Royals) on longer than a five-game losing streak and just one team (Brewers) on longer than a five-game winning streak. This serves as a reminder that it is hard to sweep a team over three or four games in even the most lopsided series.
Here are my MLB top betting plays for Tuesday. (Odds courtesy DraftKings Sportsbook)
View the best player prop bets for today’s slate with our MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>
YTD: 96-81-3 (+6.01 units)
Marlins-Phillies OVER 8.5 runs (-118)
Miami Marlins starting pitcher Trevor Rogers (7-4, 2.08) has made two starts against the Phillies this year, allowing a combined two earned runs in 12.2 innings. Meanwhile, Phillies starting pitcher Vince Velasquez (2-2, 4.74) has made just one start against the Marlins this year and held scoreless over six innings. Thus, a wager on the over is a contrarian play as both pitchers are due for regression.
Though Rogers’ ERA equates to 1.42 against Philadelphia this year, he was also lit up for eight earned runs (nine total) in three innings against them last year. Current Phillies are 14-for-45 (.311) and are slugging .556 in 51 combined plate appearances against Rogers, so he is not immune to a blowup in this start. Current Marlins are 26-for-71 (.366) and are slugging .507 in 80 combined plate appearances against Velasquez. He is 5-4 with a 4.54 ERA in 18 career starts against the Marlins, so this year’s gem against them should be seen as more of an anomaly.
Bettors who take the over should be relatively convinced that the Phillies will do their part in scoring, considering they face the better pitcher. Considering the over is 7-2 in their last nine home games against a left-handed starter, that should be enough assurance. Throw in Philadelphia’s struggles in the bullpen of late, and there should be plenty of runs scored in the later inning as well.
Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 runs (-106)
The Toronto Blue Jays have won seven of their last eight games and have covered the runline in six of those wins. Granted, this hot streak came in the previous three series against the Orioles and Marlins, but sometimes all it takes is a string of wins to build a confidence level and a feeling you can beat anyone. Though the Mariners have won four of the last five games in this series, it is tough to overlook how well Toronto’s Robbie Ray is pitching.
Ray (5-3, 3.35) has pitched to a 2.84 ERA in his last four starts despite all of them coming on the road, and with two of those starts coming against the league’s best offenses in the White Sox and Red Sox. Ray has allowed three or fewer earned runs in six of his last seven starts and has 34 strikeouts in his previous 22.2 innings. The Mariners have not fared well against lefties on the road, going 12-31 in their last 43 road games against a left-handed starter.
Toronto has scored five or more runs in each of their last five games. They look to exploit Seattle’s Chris Flexen (6-3, 3.87), who has a 7.27 ERA in five road starts. The over is 5-0 in Flexen’s last five road starts, which means there will be plenty of opportunities for Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and company to push runs across the plate.
The Blue Jays are 9-2 in their last 11 games following an off day and are 3-1 in Ray’s last four home starts. Look for him to lead Toronto to a big win to open this three-game series.
Arizona Diamondbacks ML (+135)
No, that is not a typo. We are backing the Diamondbacks, who have won just two of their last 24 games and one of their last 26 road games to win in St. Louis tonight.
This bet has everything to do with a pitching mismatch that not many may be aware of. St. Louis’s Carlos Martinez’s struggles (3-9, 6.78) have been well-documented, as he is winless with a 9.95 ERA in his last seven starts. Martinez has lost five consecutive starts and has allowed at least five earned runs in four of those starts.
Arizona’s Caleb Smith (2-3, 3.03) has a 2.56 ERA in his last seven games and has gone at least five innings in four of his last five outings after being used in various roles as an opener or out of the bullpen at times this season.
St. Louis is 3-7 in their last ten games, but the Cardinals are 5-1 in their previous six home games against a left-handed starter. Regardless, there is value on the underdogs given St. Louis’s recent struggles.
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