We’re now two months into the season and have a pretty good idea of who teams are at this point. The weather on the East Coast has been miserable over the last couple of days, which has led to a bunch of postponements, doubleheaders, and sets of games we’ve avoided. This Sunday, we have our usual main slate of day games, with the Blue Jays and Indians playing a doubleheader and Max Fried and the Braves facing off against Jacob deGrom and the Mets tonight.
Here are my top betting plays for Sunday, May 30. Have questions or want to talk baseball or betting? Feel free to reach out on Twitter @mikeMaher.
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Chicago White Sox over Baltimore Orioles: -1.5 runs (-120)
This matchup jumped off the page at me when I looked at the schedule, and the -235-to-250 moneyline odds that I found confirmed that I wasn’t alone in wanting to target this game. These teams played a doubleheader on Saturday thanks to the aforementioned weather issues, with the White Sox taking both contests. On Sunday, the White Sox are sending Lucas Giolito to the mound, and he has allowed just two earned runs over his last 14 innings after a somewhat slow (for him, at least) start to the season. It hasn’t mattered that Chicago is without Eloy Jimenez and Luis Robert in their lineup every day. They continue to hit everything and have the second-highest Team WAR over the last week. Their team wOBA, which is a great catch-all statistic to measure offensive value, is fourth-highest in the league over the last week.
The Orioles are sending Keegan Akin to the mound for his first start of the season. Akin has been a long reliever out of Baltimore’s bullpen this season, and he has a 6.10 ERA through 10 1/3 innings over four appearances. His career ERA is an even 5.00 over 36 innings, and he wasn’t ever overly impressive in the minor leagues, either. With Akin starting on Sunday, the White Sox will get a favorable matchup against a below-average pitcher for three or four innings, if Akin can last that long. Then, they’ll get a few innings against the bottom rungs of a bad Baltimore bullpen.
One of the components of “Moneyball” and the analytics-based baseball strategy movement is to get an opposing starter out of the game as early as possible because the weakest part of an MLB is usually the front end of the bullpen. In this matchup, we can all but confirm that the White Sox will get these matchups. BetMGM has the best odds at -120, and I’m fine giving up the runs to move this one from -250 to -120.
Yankees-Tigers OVER 8.5 runs (-125)
FOX Bet is the only book to have this one at 8.5 runs instead of 9.0, but you can move this line from -125 to -103 if you’re willing to give up that half of a run at another book. The Yankees are sending Michael King to the mound for his first start of the season. King has actually pitched well out of the bullpen this season, with a 2.29 ERA and 18 strikeouts over 19 2/3 innings over seven appearances. But those numbers are all in short outings, and he has allowed a run in three straight appearances. On Sunday, he’ll likely only pitch four of five innings at most and then give way to the front end of the New York bullpen.
The Tigers are sending former first-round pick Tarik Skubal to the bump. Skubal is a former top prospect who is currently learning on the job and taking his lumps at the big league level. Through 43 innings in 202, he has a 5.23 ERA and 1.51 WHIP to go with a 1-7 record. He’s also a lefty, which the Yankees have handled better this season. When Skubal faced the Yankees in New York at the end of April, he allowed four earned runs and only lasted three innings. And that was when the Yankees were struggling; they’ve been much better over the last few weeks.
Cardinals-Diamondbacks UNDER 10 runs (-110)
These two teams combined to score 11 runs on Saturday in a game started by Adam Wainwright and someone named Seth Frankoff. On Sunday, the Cardinals are starting Kwang Hyun Kim, who quietly has a solid 3.09 ERA and 32 strikeouts over 32 innings this season. The Diamondbacks, who have lost 13 games in a row, are countering with Matt Peacock. Peacock has mostly pitched out of the bullpen this season and has a 4.91 ERA over 22 innings. However, he allowed just one earned run over 5 1/3 innings against the Dodgers in Los Angeles in his last start. His ERA is also inflated by one disastrous outing against the Rockies in which he was tagged for seven earned runs over 1/3 of an inning. He has allowed just four runs over 13 1/3 innings since then.
This isn’t exactly a matchup of aces, but a 10-run line feels rather high here. I’m taking the under, and I’ll feel even better about it if we see a few players get the day off on Sunday, which happens often.
That’s it for today. Have questions or want to talk baseball or betting? Feel free to reach out on Twitter @mikeMaher.
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Mike Maher is an editor and featured writer at FantasyPros and BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive, follow him on Twitter @MikeMaher, and visit his Philadelphia Eagles blog, The Birds Blitz.
The post Top 3 MLB Betting Picks for Sunday, May 30 (2021) appeared first on BettingPros.