Welcome back for another Sunday. We have another full slate of day games and then a Red Sox at Yankees matchup on Sunday Night Baseball. We’re already one-third of the way through the season, and the season would already be ending if we were repeating the 2020 sprint season. Luckily, we aren’t. Ballparks around the country are opening up to full capacity, and it’s starting to feel like we’re watching real baseball again. Now, let’s talk betting picks for today.
Here are my top betting plays for Sunday, June 6. Have questions or want to talk baseball or betting? Feel free to reach out on Twitter @mikeMaher.
View the best player prop bets for today’s slate with our MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>
Baltimore Orioles ML (+105)
Fox BET regularly has decent moneyline odds, and they currently have this Orioles moneyline set at +105 for this Cleveland Indians at Baltimore Orioles matchup on Sunday afternoon. The Indians are sending Cal Quantrill to the mound, which means they’re going to have to lean heavily on their bullpen. Quantrill, who has been a starter in the past, has pitched out of the bullpen for most of the season. He has been fine overall and has a 2.08 ERA through 18 appearances, but he has only made one start so far. Even if he pitches well, it should only be for about four innings.
The Orioles are countering with Jorge Lopez. Lopez has a 5.29 ERA through 11 starts but has struck out 52 batters over 51 innings and sports an xFIP of 4.03 that is more than a run lower than his ERA. He has also tossed two straight quality starts and has lowered his ERA by more than a full run over his last three starts. This isn’t an endorsement of Lopez, but it’s an acknowledgment that he has been pitching better than some of his surface-level numbers indicate.
The Orioles are not a good team, but Cedric Mullins is getting hot at the top of the lineup again and Ryan Mountcastle has four home runs in his last five games and is finally showing signs of life after a hot start. Take the +105 at Fox BET because the consensus is around -115 everywhere else.
Diamondbacks-Brewers UNDER 7.5 runs (-110)
The Brewers have taken the first three games of this series and are going for the sweep on Sunday afternoon. To do so, they’re sending their co-ace Corbin Burnes to the mound. Through nine starts this season, Burnes has struck out 81 batters over 52 1/3 innings while walking just seven to go with a 2.24 ERA and 0.73 WHIP. Burnes rarely gets himself into trouble, and when he does he has the stuff to get out of it. Despite these excellent numbers, he hasn’t won a start since April 20, and he’ll be looking to change that on Sunday afternoon.
Corbin Burnes has a 2.24 ERA, 0.73 WHIP, and 81:7 K/BB through 52 1/3 innings but hasn't won a start since April 20. He's 0-3 through five starts since that last win. #ThisIsMyCrew
— mike Maher. (@mikeMaher) June 6, 2021
The Diamondbacks are sending Caleb Smith to the mound who has quietly been not terrible. After starting the year in the rotation and being quickly shifted to the bullpen, he has fought his way back to being a starter thanks to his performance and some injuries. Through 38 innings, Smith has a 3.32 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, and 42 strikeouts in 20 appearances. He allowed two earned runs over five innings in his last start against the Mets and should be stretched out enough to go five or six innings in this one.
These are two offenses who have been hitting better of late but are still near the bottom of the league. Burnes should handle his side of things, and I expect Smith and the Arizona bullpen to do enough against a bad Milwaukee lineup to keep this one under 7.5 runs.
Houston Astros ML (Even)
I am not afraid of Steven Matz, and I’m gladly taking an even moneyline for the Astros in this one. The Astros have been great against lefthanders this season and recently knocked Hyun-jin Ryu around for six runs. The last time Matz faced the Astros, he allowed three runs over five innings. But that was in Houston. This game is in Buffalo, and the Astros have at least seen this new version of Matz now. I expect that deep Houston lineup to chase Matz from this one fairly early.
The Astros are sending young right-hander Luis Garcia to the mound. Garcia has won four straight starts and has tossed back-to-back quality starts to lower his ERA to 2.72 on the season. There are some innings concerns for the rest of the season, but that is for Astros fans and fantasy managers to worry about. Garcia allowed just one earned run over seven innings against the Red Sox in his last start, and I expect him to at least outperform Matz in this one.
That’s it for today. Have questions or want to talk baseball or betting? Feel free to reach out on Twitter @mikeMaher.
MLB Prop Bets
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Trevor Bauer Prop Bet Odds
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Mike Maher is an editor and featured writer at FantasyPros and BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive, follow him on Twitter @MikeMaher, and visit his Philadelphia Eagles blog, The Birds Blitz.
The post Top 3 MLB Betting Picks for Sunday, June 6 (2021) appeared first on BettingPros.