Welcome back for another Sunday. Sunday is always one of my favorite days to watch and bet on baseball for a couple of reasons. We typically get a big slate of day games, and it’s often a getaway day for MLB teams. It’s a big rest day, especially for veterans. That means we get some different lineups with a bunch of moving pieces, and there are ways to take advantage of those differences. I like this even more for DFS MLB contests because of the value you can find in those lineups, but it’s valuable for betting, too, since the lines don’t change quickly or significantly enough to account for major contributors sitting. We’ll focus on a few picks here before lineups come up, but keep an eye on those lineups for value this morning.
Here are my top betting plays for Sunday, June 20. Have questions or want to talk baseball or betting? Feel free to reach out on Twitter @mikeMaher.
View the best player prop bets for today’s slate with our MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>
Toronto Blue Jays over Baltimore Orioles: -1.5 runs (-134)
BetMGM actually has this one -2.5 and even money, if you want to take a bigger swing at this one. The Blue Jays are one of the hottest teams in baseball, and they finally added George Springer to their already-potent lineup. On the mound for Toronto is Ross Stripling, who has somewhat quietly been pitching very well for them over the last month. In five of his last six starts, Stripling has allowed two or fewer runs. In four of those, he has allowed one or fewer. His ERA is still a rather pedestrian 4.33, but it was 7.20 back on May 19 and has been freefalling. The Orioles are countering with Jorge Lopez, who is 2-9 with a 5.68 ERA and 1.46 WHIP on the season. The Orioles are not a good team, and they may very well have the worst pitching staff in baseball. That isn’t a good combination when facing an offensive juggernaut like the Blue Jays. I’m fine with giving up the 1.5 runs to move this one from -250 to -134.
Diamondbacks-Padres UNDER 7.5 runs (-120)
Over the last two weeks, the Arizona Diamondbacks are batting just .237 as a team with a .287 wOBA. Over that span, they have just six home runs, which is the fewest in baseball. In fact, five individual players have six or more home runs in that time period. On Sunday, they’ll be facing Yu Darvish and his 2.50 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, and 108 strikeouts over 90 innings. In his last start, Darvish struck out 11 Dodgers batters over six innings while allowing just two hits. And while the Padres have an offense capable of topping this 7.5 over/under on their own, the Diamondbacks are sending Zac Gallen to the mound. Gallen just spent some time on the injured list with an elbow sprain, but he is one of the better young pitchers in baseball and allowed just one earned run while striking out eight over five innings in his last start. I’m betting on Darvish shutting down a bad Diamondbacks lineup and Gallen to limit the damage against Fernando Tatis Jr. and that Padres lineup.
Over the last two weeks, the #Diamondbacks have just 6 home runs as a team.
Kyle Schwarber has 12 home runs over that span.
Fernando Tatis Jr. and Shohei Ohtani have 7.
Jake Cronenworth and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. each have 6.
— mike Maher. (@mikeMaher) June 27, 2021
Cincinnati Reds over Atlanta Braves: -1.5 runs (+120)
This was a game I circled as soon as I saw Kyle Muller was scheduled to start for the Braves in place of Max Fried. Muller had a 4.60 ERA over 31 1/3 innings in Triple-A this season, and he has only thrown five big league innings over two appearances. The potential for implosion is there, and even if Muller pitches well, he’ll likely only go about five innings. The Reds have already taken two of the first three games of this series, and they are sending their de facto ace Tyler Mahle to the mound against Muller. The Braves are hitting just .229 over the last two weeks, and Mahle has a 3.56 ERA and 1.14 WHIP to go with 98 strikeouts over 78 1/3 innings. The +120 odds combined with the potential for disaster on the Atlanta side make this one worth it. And the move from -154 to +120 is easily enough to get me to give up the 1.5 runs.
That’s it for today. Have questions or want to talk baseball or betting? Feel free to reach out on Twitter @mikeMaher.
MLB Prop Bets
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Mike Maher is an editor and featured writer at FantasyPros and BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive, follow him on Twitter @MikeMaher, and visit his Philadelphia Eagles blog, The Birds Blitz.
The post Top 3 MLB Betting Picks for Sunday, June 27 (2021) appeared first on BettingPros.