Welcome back for another Sunday, and happy July 4th! We have a fun day of baseball ahead of us, with our usual full slate of day games to close out the week. As a reminder, keep an eye on the lineups as we get closer to first pitch for some of these contests because Sunday is a big rest day, especially for veterans on teams that are about to travel. Let’s get right into the picks.
Here are my top betting plays for Sunday, July 4. Have questions or want to talk baseball or betting? Feel free to reach out on Twitter @mikeMaher.
View the best player prop bets for today’s slate with our MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>
Milwaukee Brewers ML (-156)
The Pittsburgh Pirates are probably the worst team in baseball, and they have had the worst offense in baseball over the last couple of weeks. In fact, over the last week, the Pirates have scored just 16 runs, good for the lowest in MLB. By comparison, the Brewers have scored 71 runs over that same span. If you compare pretty much any offensive category over the last week, the Pirates are at or near the bottom, and the Brewers are among the league leaders. These are two teams trending in different directions.
The Brewers are sending Freddy Peralta and his 2.17 ERA and 0.87 WHIP to the mound, while the Pirates are countering with veteran left-hander Tyler Anderson (4.75 ERA, 1.23 WHIP). Peralta has 122 strikeouts through 87 innings, and he has thrown three consecutive quality starts and five quality starts in his last six trips to the mound. Consensus Brewers moneyline for this one is -186, but you can get it for -156 at FanDuel.
Over the past week, the #Pirates have scored just 16 runs while batting .191 with a .259 OBP, .304 SLG, and .250 wOBA as a team.
By comparison, the #Brewers over that same span:
— mike Maher. (@mikeMaher) July 4, 2021
Houston Astros ML (-140)
Even with Yordan Alvarez on paternity leave and Kyle Tucker day-to-day, this is a game the Astros should win easily to complete the four-game sweep. Cleveland gets a boost from the return of Franmil Reyes (assuming he plays on Sunday and doesn’t get the day off), but they still aren’t a very good offense. The Astros are sending savvy veteran right-hander Zack Greinke to the mound, while Cleveland is countering with Cal Quantrill.
Quantrill was in the bullpen to start the season but has moved into the starting rotation due to a number of injuries. He has allowed 10 earned runs over his last 7 2/3 innings and hasn’t won any of his six starts. Greinke has won his last four decisions and hasn’t lost a start since May 25. The consensus Astros moneyline for this one is -159, but you can get it for -140 at William Hill Sportsbook.
Marlins-Braves UNDER 8.5 runs (-106)
This has been a strange series, and it’s now a heated rivalry that has been slowly boiling since 2018. Pablo Lopez was ejected after just one pitch the other day, and Lopez actually took the loss since Ronald Acuna Jr. came around to score in what went on to be a 1-0 loss. The matchup today features veteran right-hander Charlie Morton toeing the rubber for the Braves, with the Marlins sending youngster Zach Thompson to the mound.
Morton has been pitching very well of late after getting off to a slow start this season, while Thompson has seemingly come out of nowhere to look like an ace in a very small sample size for the Marlins (1.50 ERA through four starts). In fact, these two pitchers have combined to allow just four earned runs combined over their last three starts, a span of 35 2/3 innings. The Marlins have had one of the worst offenses over the last week, and only the Pirates and Cubs have scored fewer runs. And as an added bonus on Sunday, the wind is blowing in. DraftKings has the bests odds for the under, at -106. FanDuel has it at -118, and the consensus is -110.
That’s it for today. Have questions or want to talk baseball or betting? Feel free to reach out on Twitter @mikeMaher.
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Mike Maher is an editor and featured writer at FantasyPros and BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive, follow him on Twitter @MikeMaher, and visit his Philadelphia Eagles blog, The Birds Blitz.
The post Top 3 MLB Betting Picks for Sunday, July 4 (2021) appeared first on BettingPros.