Welcome back for another Sunday. Saturday night featured some gross weather and a game being suspended due to an active shooter situation. Let’s hope for a better day of baseball today.
Here are my top betting plays for Sunday, July 18. Have questions or want to talk baseball or betting? Feel free to reach out on Twitter @mikeMaher.
View the best player prop bets for today’s slate with our MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>
Milwaukee Brewers ML (-125)
Corbin Burnes is on the mound for the Brewers. Burnes has a 2.36 ERA and has allowed just one earned run in three straight starts. He hasn’t lost a decision since May 25 despite what had been a disappointing Milwaukee offense until recently. He’s a legitimate Cy Young award candidate if Jacob deGrom has to miss time after dealing with forearm tightness this weekend.
The Reds are countering with Sonny Gray, who has been impressive in his own right this season but who is making his first start since landing on the injured list with a strain in his rib cage two weeks ago. He isn’t likely to be on a strict pitch count on Sunday, but the Reds will be careful with him. He has made it through the fifth inning just once in his last four trips to the mound, and it’s likely that we only see about five innings from him on Sunday.
With Milwaukee starting Burnes and their potential to get into the middle of the Cincinnati bullpen, I’m taking the Brewers at -125 at BetMGM.
Cubs-Diamondbacks OVER 9.0 Runs (-115)
It has been hard to bet on the Diamondbacks to do really anything this season, but this is a pitching matchup I’m targeting today. If you look at my Twitter profile, you’ll see my header image is a graphic from an article I did several weeks ago showing Zach Davies—whose numbers were already not very good—as one of the pitchers significantly outperforming his expected numbers. He has pitched somewhat better since then, but the expected numbers are still bad, and the potential for implosion is still present every time he toes the rubber.
Merrill Kelly has dropped his ERA by nearly a full run over the last month and hasn’t allowed more than three earned runs in a start since June 16. But he isn’t as good as he was pitching heading into the All-Star break, and the struggling Cubs still have a strong heart of the order in Willson Contreras, Anthony Rizzo, Javier Baez, and Kris Bryant. I like to target overs where there is the potential for disaster from each starting pitcher, and that’s exactly what this matchup is.
You can get this over bet at -115 at William Hill Sportsbook and BetMGM, while some of the other books have it at -120 or -122.
I've been getting a bunch of questions recently about Zach Davies coming out of the All-Star break.
He's still a hard fade for me, even in deeper leagues. The upside is minimal, and the floor is…very low. I don't care if he is traded out of Chicago. No interest.#CubTogether pic.twitter.com/AdhbXDBVaw
— mike Maher. (@mikeMaher) July 18, 2021
Orioles-Royals OVER 10.0 Runs (Even)
This is a game I had circled for bets before I even saw the odds. Once I saw that the over was even money, it was an easy decision. Neither of these teams is very good right now (especially the Orioles), but they do both have offenses capable of putting up some crooked numbers. The Orioles are starting Matt Harvey and his 7.70 ERA. As his ERA indicates, Harvey has been getting absolutely torched this season. In his last start against the Blue Jays at home, he allowed six runs through 3 2/3 innings.
The Royals are starting young righthander Carlos Hernandez, who has a 4.98 ERA and 1.66 WHIP through 21 2/3 innings. And those are his numbers coming out of the bullpen. On Sunday, he’ll be making his first start of the season. That means we’re likely to see some Kansas City middle relievers today, and that usually means runs. With this pitching matchup and these odds, roll the dice on the over today.
That’s it for today. Have questions or want to talk baseball or betting? Feel free to reach out on Twitter @mikeMaher.
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Mike Maher is an editor and featured writer at FantasyPros and BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive, follow him on Twitter @MikeMaher, and visit his Philadelphia Eagles blog, The Birds Blitz.
The post Top 3 MLB Betting Picks for Sunday, July 18 (2021) appeared first on BettingPros.