Top 3 MLB Betting Picks for Monday, June 21st (2021)

We start a new week with just eight games on the Major League Baseball betting slate, but the action should entice bettors. Arguably this season’s greatest rivalry begins again for a three-game series, as the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres clash after sweeping inferior opponents. And in the NL East, the Atlanta Braves will have a sense of urgency when facing the first-place New York Mets, who start their series with a doubleheader.

In honor of the New York Yankees, here is our “triple play” of picks as we look to continue our 6-0 run from the end of last week.


12 Teams with 3 Triple Plays in Season (MLB Record)
1882 Cincinnati Red Stockings
1885 New York Giants
1886 Brooklyn Grays
1890 Rochester Broncos
1911 Tigers
1924 Red Sox
1964 Phillies
1965 Cubs
1979 Red Sox
1979 Athletics
2016 White Sox
** 2021 Yankees

— James Smyth (@JamesSmyth621) June 20, 2021

Here are my MLB top betting plays for Monday. (Odds courtesy DraftKings Sportsbook)

View the best player prop bets for today’s slate with our MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>

YTD: 89-71-3 (+9.33 units)

Astros-Orioles OVER 10 runs (-110)

The head-to-head trends between the Houston Astros and Baltimore Orioles suggest the under is the play, as it has cashed five times in their last seven meetings in Baltimore and is 9-2 in their previous 11 meetings overall. However, those trends do not consider how hot Houston’s offense is and how poorly Baltimore has pitched lately.

The Astros dominated the Chicago White Sox in a four-game home series over the weekend. They faced a team that ranked in the top-four in the majors in ERA and obliterated them to the tune of 27 runs in four games. The Astros have averaged 7.9 runs per game during their seven-game winning streak and lead the majors in nearly every offensive category. Houston has a wide lead over the rest of their competition in OPS, batting average, runs scored, total hits, and total bases. They now face Orioles lefty Keegan Akin (0-2, 5.76 ERA), who is coming off a start where he allowed eight runs against Cleveland. The over is 12-4-2 in Houston’s last 18 road games against a left-handed starter.

Houston does not have one of their best pitchers going either, in Jake Odorizzi (1-3, 5.68 ERA). Odorizzi has a 6.75 ERA in two road starts this season and has pitched to a 4.83 ERA in ten career starts against Baltimore.

Baltimore’s pitching staff has allowed at least seven runs in five of their last six games, so expect another slugfest to break out in Camden Yards tonight.

Indians-Cubs UNDER 7.5 runs (-110)

The Cleveland Indians have one of the most banged-up rotations in baseball, with four of their five starters on the injured list. The one healthy member of the rotation is tonight’s starter, Aaron Civale. Civale (10-2, 3.48 ERA) is the only pitcher with at least ten wins and looks for a Major League-leading 11th win tonight. He has a WHIP of 1.06 and allowed an OBA of .229, and does not mind pitching on the road with five wins in six decisions while pitching to a 3.69 ERA in seven road starts.

We see such a relatively high total in this contest with the uncertainty surrounding Cubs starter Adbert Alzolay (4-5, 4.06 ERA), who is making his first start since being activated from the 10-day IL after dealing with a blister on his throwing hand. Alzolay has allowed three earned runs or fewer in nine of his 11 starts and pitched to a 2.95 ERA in the seven games before getting injured.

The Cubs have struggled offensively of late, as they have been held to two runs or fewer in seven of their last eight games. The under is 7-3 in the previous ten meetings between these teams at Wrigley Field, and we should be in for another low-scoring contest tonight.

Cincinnati Reds ML (-118)

The Cincinnati Reds come into this series opener against the Minnesota Twins limping as losers of four straight games while the Twins have won four straight. However, this bet is all about one man, starting pitcher Tyler Mahle.

Mahle (7-2, 3.39 ERA) is 5-0 with a 2.15 ERA in his last five starts and is coming off a career-high 12 strikeout performance against the Brewers. The under is 4-0-1 in Mahle’s last five road starts, and his ERA in nine road starts is a minuscule 1.63 in nine road starts compared to a 6.93 ERA in five home starts. Current Twins have seen Mahle a combined 11 times, with Max Kepler the only able to break through for a single.

The Reds face Twins starter J.A. Happ (3-3, 6.12 ERA), who has pitched to an 8.68 ERA since the beginning of May. Cincinnati has crushed left-handed pitching of late and has won each of their last five games against a left-handed starter. Unfortunately, with Happ in horrible form at the moment, he is not the lefty that will break that streak.

Tyler Mahle is good at throwing baseballs. Send tweet.

— Cincinnati Reds (@Reds) June 16, 2021

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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

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