Mondays seem to be the day most fans and bettors tend to do their deepest dives into what has transpired recently and how it affects their thinking about what is in store for the week ahead. Analyzing just the three-game sample size from the weekend’s events, bettors should be asking themselves the following questions.
Are the Mets in serious trouble after series loss against the Pirates and with having Jacob deGrom and Francisco Lindor on the IL? If so, which NL East team is ready to take their place atop the standings? Did the Brewers salt away the NL Central race with their sweep of the Reds? Are the Blue Jays for real, or are we overreacting to their three-game bludgeoning of the lowly Rangers? Finally, is it time to worry about the Giants after losing another series to the Cardinals?
Here are my MLB top betting plays for Monday. (Odds courtesy DraftKings Sportsbook)
View the best player prop bets for today’s slate with our MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>
YTD: 110-95-4 (+2.15 units)
Chicago White Sox -1.5 runs for Game 1 (-115)
As of this writing, Chicago White Sox starting pitcher Lance Lynn is scheduled to start the first game of today’s doubleheader against the Minnesota Twins. If the plans change and he gets moved to the second game, our wager would move to that game, as this wager is all about him.
Lynn (9-3, 1.99) just agreed to a two-year extension worth $38M with the White Sox, which should put him at ease in this start and for the rest of the season as he no longer has to worry about when his next big payday will be. Lynn has been dominant at home with a 6-2 record and 1.53 ERA in ten home starts. His K:BB ratio is better than 4.5:1 at home, which pairs nicely with his .167 OBA and 0.85 WHIP. After not winning any of his last four starts to end June, Lynn has rebounded with two wins in two July starts, including holding Minnesota to just one run on four hits in six innings in his last start against Minnesota.
The White Sox exercised demons of sorts when they shook off a five-game losing streak to the Houston Astros and took the three-game series by winning the final two games. Chicago is 10-2 against Minnesota this year, and the White Sox have won each of Lynn’s last four starts against teams with a losing record. They have two fewer innings to cover the runline, but it is still a much more appealing bet than laying the steep moneyline odds.
Orioles-Rays OVER 9 runs (+100)
When the Orioles and Rays meet, there are usually plenty of fireworks. The over is 4-1-1 in the last six meetings between them, and the Orioles, in particular, tend to play high-scoring games when they oppose a left-handed starting pitcher. The over is 15-3 in their last 18 games against a lefty, and those two trends are enough to pique our interest for another high-scoring affair.
Tampa Bay’s Ryan Yarbrough (6-3, 4.30) has not lost any of his last seven appearances, going 4-0 with a 4.35 ERA in that span. Three of his last four starts have come against teams within the division, and they have come with mixed results. He allowed five runs to Boston in the shortest outing of the season (two innings), and the master of “soft contact” has not struck out more than five batters in any of his last five starts. Though he has allowed only five runs in 12 combined innings against Baltimore this year, he has been tagged for four home runs in that span. Thus, with a little more luck with the long balls coming with men on base, the Orioles can put up runs in bunches tonight.
The Orioles have scored a league-low 41 runs in July entering Sunday, but they have scored at least five runs in four of their last eight games. Even if Baltimore does not do their part in scoring tonight, the Rays are a hot offense that scored seven runs in each of their two wins in their latest series against Atlanta. The over is 5-0 in Baltimore’s last five series openers, and their pitching staff that ranks last in baseball with a 5.57 team ERA should be more than generous in allowing runs of their own.
Detroit Tigers ML (-105)
Texas Rangers starting pitcher Kyle Gibson (6-1, 2.29) should be one of the most coveted starting pitchers at the trade deadline, and this may be one of his last chances in a Rangers uniform to impress his suitors. He is coming off his worst start since Opening Day, as he allowed five earned runs over 6.1 innings to Detroit. His eight hits allowed were the most he has given up all season, and the poor start broke a streak of nine consecutive starts allowing two runs or fewer.
Given how well Detroit was able to hit Gibson, we are banking on a repeat performance tonight. The Tigers are coming off a three-game sweep of the Twins, with two of their wins coming by shutout. In addition, they have won five straight games at home, while the Rangers are winless in Gibson’s last four road starts. Thus, there is too much value on the home underdogs to blindly expect a bounce-back effort from Gibson and the Rangers.
MLB Prop Bets
Kyle Gibson Prop Bet Odds
Carlos Correa Prop Bet Odds
Alex Verdugo Prop Bet Odds
Rafael Devers Prop Bet Odds
Nelson Cruz Prop Bet Odds
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