Top 3 MLB Betting Picks for Friday, May 7th (2021)

The New York Yankees have the longest active streak of consecutive seasons finishing over .500 with 28. That is significant because before their loss in the series finale to the Houston Astros, they were two games over .500 for the first time all season. Not many thought their streak of being over .500 was in jeopardy this year, even after a 5-10 start. But the Yankees are 7-2 in their last nine games and are starting to remind everyone that they are not going to let the Red Sox run away with the division.

If you are wondering, the Major League record for most consecutive seasons with a winning record is 39, which the Yankees also hold from 1926-64. The Yankees have more than double the next active streak, 13, owned by the Cardinals from 2008-2020.

Here are my MLB top betting plays for Friday. (Odds courtesy DraftKings Sportsbook):

View the best player prop bets for today’s slate with our MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>

YTD: 42-30-2 (+7.51 units)

Diamondbacks-Mets UNDER 7.5 runs (-105)

In a four-game series against the Rockies, the Diamondbacks hitters got fat on Colorado pitching. They averaged 6.5 runs per game in those four games, which helped them take three of four games in the series. Arizona’s bats have not fared nearly as well in their latest series against the Marlins, scoring just four total runs in three games. Though Arizona has scored 90 runs in their 20 road games, some of that has been inflated by six games at Coors Field and the Great American Ball Park. With New York’s Citi Field being much less forgiving, Diamondbacks bats should be relatively quiet once again.

New York’s starting pitcher David Peterson (1-3, 4.81 ERA) has allowed three earned runs or less in four of his five starts. Peterson’s high ERA total is a product of a poor first start against the Phillies, who tagged him for six earned runs in four innings. Peterson has faced the Phillies in three of his five starts, so the unfamiliarity with him facing Arizona’s lineup for the first time in his career should give him an advantage. His arsenal of pitches is getting more effective, as he got 17 swings and misses in his last start, which was the second-highest total of his young career. 

Mets hitters face Arizona’s Zac Gallen (1-1, 3.48 ERA), who has much better numbers on the road than at home this season. Gallen has made two starts each at home and on the road, and his ERA in his road starts is 2.13 compared to 5.63 at home. He has allowed an OBA of .119 on the road compared to .257 at home, and the team is 2-0 in his road starts.

The Mets rank 29th in the majors in AB/HR and are in the bottom half of the league in OPS. The under is also 8-1-1 in their ten home games, so there is value in tonight’s total.

Twins-Tigers OVER 8.5 runs (-121)

Tonight’s series opener between the Twins and Tigers features two starting pitchers who have struggled mightily to begin the season. Minnesota’s Matt Shoemaker (1-3, 7.83 ERA) and Detroit’s Tarik Skubal (0-4, 6.14 ERA) do not enter this matchup with any momentum, as they combined to allow 13 earned runs in their last start. Both bullpens figure to be heavily involved in this matchup as well. Shoemaker has pitched into the fifth inning just once in his previous three starts, while Skubal has reached the fifth inning just once all season. That does not bode well for keeping the scoring down, considering Minnesota’s bullpen ranks 22nd and Detroit’s ranks 30th in ERA.

The over is 4-0-1 in Skubal’s last five starts. In addition, the over is 5-0-1 in Minnesota’s last six games against American League Central opponents and is 3-0-1 in their previous four road games. Despite the lofty total, do not overthink this one.

St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 runs (+107)

St. Louis Cardinals ace Jack Flaherty (5-0, 3.41 ERA) remains the only pitcher in the majors with five wins this season. Despite an ERA that ranks 38th among qualified pitchers, Flaherty has been helped by tremendous run support, as his team has scored more than ten runs per game in his starts. With more run support likely tonight, we opt to forego St. Louis’s moneyline odds and instead like the better value on the runline.

Colorado Rockies starting pitcher Austin Gomber (2-3, 5.90 ERA) faces his former team for the first time. Gomber was part of the package that Colorado sent St. Louis in exchange for third baseman Nolan Arenado. Most Rockies pitchers prefer to get away from the altitude of Coors Field, but Gomber’s 1-2 road record and 7.20 ERA leave something to be desired. Gomber compiled those poor numbers even though two road starts came against the Giants, who are not known for their offensive prowess. Thus, Gomber could once again struggle against a Cardinals lineup that ranks in the top half of the league in total bases and batting average in home games.

Though the Cardinals are just 9-8 SU at home this season, they also have a 9-8 runline record. Thus, do not fear that they win by just one run and hope for a big win at better odds.  

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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

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