All bettors are aware that any streak, no matter the type, must come to an end at some point. There are currently three long streaks happening in Major League Baseball at the moment. The Houston Astros have won ten consecutive games, the San Diego Padres have won seven straight games, and the Baltimore Orioles have lost 19 consecutive road games. Many bettors choose to pile on streaks like these, blindly betting teams amid their streaks because they think that will not be the day the streak ends. Others fade streaks like these at a certain point, taking the mindset that it will come to an end at some point.
While there is no right or wrong approach to this, the one thing all bettors should keep in mind is that oddsmakers are aware of these streaks and often set egregious odds knowing that those games will be popular bets. As long as you still think you are getting good value with specific lines, that should remain the primary reason to wager on a game involving a streak or fade it all together.
Here are my MLB top betting plays for Friday. (Odds courtesy DraftKings Sportsbook)
View the best player prop bets for today’s slate with our MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>
YTD: 95-77-3 (+8.78 units)
Yankees-Red Sox OVER 10.5 runs (-112)
The Boston Red Sox swept a three-game series at Yankee Stadium in the only series with the New York Yankees so far this season. Now, these bitter rivals get to battle it out for the first time at Fenway Park. The Red Sox and Yankees tend to play high-scoring games at Fenway, as the over is 13-5-1 in the last 19 meetings there. With both offenses performing well of late, another slugfest should ensue.
Boston has scored at least seven runs in four of their last eight games, while 10 of the previous 15 games the Yankees have played have totaled at least 11 runs.
Yankees starter Domingo German (4-4, 4.17) has allowed 11 earned runs in his last 8.1 innings. His OBA is .275 on the road compared to .220 at home, and his WHIP is 0.18 higher in his road starts. German is making his fifth appearance (fourth start) at Fenway Park, where he has gone 1-1 with a 5.79 ERA to this point.
German is opposed by Boston’s Martin Perez (5-4, 4.32), who has been tagged for 11 runs in his last 3.1 innings at home. The over is 11-4 in the Yankees’ previous 15 games, and their lineup looks a lot deeper with Luke Voit back from injury. Many of New York’s biggest bats (Giancarlo Stanton, Luke Voit, DJ Lemahieu) are all batting .333 or better in their careers off Perez and should do their part in helping the Yankees score runs.
The reigning HR champ Luke Voit is FEELING it since returning from the IL
Yankees (-217) pic.twitter.com/rtJTS8USoR
— Action Network MLB (@ActionNetMLB) June 24, 2021
Chicago White Sox -1.5 runs (+110)
The Chicago White Sox are facing a left-handed starting pitcher tonight in Seattle’s Yusei Kikuchi. That, and the fact that they are playing at home, is precisely what they need to get out of their recent funk.
The White Sox are 20-7 in their last 27 home games against a left-handed starter and are 44-16 in their previous 60 games overall against a lefty. Though it was a shortened season, the White Sox did not lose a game 14-0 in 2020 against a left-handed starter, and their .523 slugging percentage against lefties was the highest since the 1955 Brooklyn Dodgers. Chicago is an MLB-best 27-12 at home this season and is 26-9 as home favorites.
Seattle’s Yusei Kikuchi (4-3, 3.46) is on an impressive streak, allowing one earned run in his last 14 innings. He is 2-1 on the road this season but has been susceptible to the long ball, averaging at least one home run allowed in each road start. Though he is holding right-handed batters to a .216 OBA, his K:BB ratio is less than 3:1 while it is 6:1 against lefties.
Chicago counters with Carlos Rodon (6-2, 1.83), who is quietly having one of the best seasons of any American League pitcher. He has allowed an OBA of .157 and a WHIP of 0.73 in his five home starts. Opposing Mariners hitters are just 4-for-23 (.174 BA) with 11 strikeouts in 23 at-bats in their career against Rodon. The under is 4-0 in Rodon’s last four home starts, and the team is 3-1 in his previous four starts overall.
The White Sox went 1-5 on their recent road trip but should get right at home against a Mariners team that is just 15-21 on the road this season.
Oakland Athletics ML (-114)
A bet on the Oakland Athletics over MLB’s best team is all about one man, starting pitcher Sean Manaea. Manaea (6-3, 3.01 ERA) has been on a tear of late, going 3-1 with a 1.65 ERA in his last seven starts. He has 44 strikeouts in his previous 43.2 innings and has allowed three earned runs or less in 12 of his previous 14 starts.
The San Francisco Giants have won three straight games and are 8-2 in their last ten. However, the A’s have been a thorn in their side, as Oakland has won five of their previous six against San Francisco and each of their last four road games against the Giants. San Francisco is just 3-13 in their last 16 interleague home games against teams with a winning record, and Oakland is 7-1 in their previous eight interleague games. Thus, the value lies with the road favorites tonight.
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