As we head into the weekend with several new series starting around the league, do not be surprised to see the theme of heavy favorites surfacing over the next few days. Of the six first-place teams in every division, just one (Mets against the Padres) faces a team over .500. The Rays, White Sox, Brewers, and Giants look to feast on opponents who are no higher than fourth in their respective divisions. Thus, bettors will likely have to decide between laying steep moneyline odds on the favorites, eschewing those steep odds for more generous prices on runlines, or staying away from these games altogether.
Here are my MLB top betting plays for Friday. (Odds courtesy DraftKings Sportsbook)
View the best player prop bets for today’s slate with our MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>
YTD: 79-64-3 (+8.32 units)
Braves-Marlins UNDER 7.5 runs (-122)
The Miami Marlins are one of the most profitable teams to the under this year, with the under cashing in 54.2% of their games (27-32-3). That number is 53.8% in their home games, as the under is 14-12-1 in their 27 home games. They welcome an Atlanta Braves team that scores the ninth-most runs per game, but they have the perfect pitcher on the mound to thwart Atlanta’s hot offense.
Sandy Alcantara (3-5, 3.30 ERA) has held current Braves hitters to a .173 batting average (9-for-52) and .327 slugging percentage in 64 combined plate appearances. He turned in a big start for the Marlins his last time out, as his win over the Pirates helped stop the team’s eight-game losing streak. Alcantara has allowed six earned runs over his previous 28 innings while striking out 23 batters and walking six in that span. Though he is winless (0-2) in six home starts this year, his ERA is 2.29, which is more than two runs lower than his 4.31 road ERA. Miami’s offense has scored two runs or fewer in four of Alcantara’s six home starts and should find difficulty once again when facing Atlanta’s Charlie Morton.
Morton (5-2, 4.06 ERA) has allowed three earned runs or fewer in each of his last six starts. He has a 28:6 K:BB ratio in his previous four starts while posting a WHIP of 1.00 or lower three times in that span. Morton has had success on the road at Miami in his career, going 3-1 with a 3.47 ERA in four starts.
Though the over is 3-0-1 in the last four meetings between these teams, the under is 3-1-1 in the previous five meetings in Miami. The under is also 4-0 in Alcantara’s previous four starts, and we want to be tailing when it cashes for a fifth consecutive time.
Rockies-Reds UNDER 9.5 runs (-112)
While many trends pointed to the under in the Braves-Marlins series opener, most trends point the other way in the Rockies-Reds matchup. The over is 7-2-1 in their last ten meetings, including a 3-0-1 record in their previous four meetings overall. Yet, we are happy to go against the trends with the under, citing one starting pitcher carrying a lot of momentum and another who has yet to hit their stride.
Cincinnati’s Tyler Mahle (5-2, 3.32 ERA) is 3-0 with a 1.04 ERA over his last three starts. While all those games have come on the road, Mahle will be eager to use this momentum to get his struggles at home situated. He has a 7.23 through four home starts and has allowed 13 earned runs over his last seven innings at the Great American Ball Park. Those poor outings came against first-place teams (Cubs and Giants), while the Rockies are anything but a great team. Their 5-24 road record is well-documented, and they have an MLB-worst .201 team batting average and .567 OPS through their first 29 road games. Thus, Mahle should feel confident entering today’s start.
Colorado counters with Kyle Freeland, who is 0-1 with a 6.23 ERA in three starts this year. Freeland’s ERA is inflated by a poor last start at home against Oakland, in which he was tagged for five runs in five innings. However, he has pitched to a much more respectable 4.50 ERA in his two road starts. He continues to build his arm strength and pitch count, and it should not be long until we see Freeland become as dependable as he was for the team last year when he led the majors with 13 starts. Freeland is just two seasons removed from finishing fourth in the NL Cy Young voting, so do not discount his ability even though he is off to a slow start.
Astros-Twins OVER 10.5 runs (-118)
As contrarian as the Rockies-Reds under pick is, taking the over in the Astros-Twins will be sure to be the more heavily bet side, as bettors will pile on the recent failures of Matt Shoemaker. Even if Shoemaker turns things around, there is reason to believe this game will feature plenty of runs.
Shoemaker (2-7, 7.28 ERA) was blasted for eight earned runs and recorded just one out in his last start at Kansas City. He has allowed at least five earned runs in three of his previous five starts. Just five current Astros have ever faced Shoemaker, but two of those are Houston’s biggest bats, and they have been quite successful against him. Alex Bregman and Jose Altuve are a combined 13-for-35 (.371 BA) with three doubles and four home runs in their careers against Shoemaker. We look for them to be once again the table setters for an Astros offense that will do their part in the scoring.
Though Minnesota enters this game having not won any of their last four series, their offense has scored at least four runs in six of their last seven games and has averaged 4.9 runs per game in that span. The Twins face Houston’s Jose Urquidy (4-3, 3.76 ERA), who has allowed at least four earned runs in two of his last three road starts. The over is 4-0 in Minnesota’s last four games against teams from the AL West and is 7-1 in their previous eight home games against teams with a winning record. Sometimes it pays to be on the public side.
MLB Prop Bets
Fernando Tatis Jr. Prop Bet Odds
Freddie Freeman Prop Bet Odds
Ozzie Albies Prop Bet Odds
Jacob deGrom Prop Bet Odds
Alex Bregman Prop Bet Odds
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts
Whether you’re new to sports betting or a betting pro, our Sports Betting Strategy and Advice page is for you. You can get started with our 101 section — including 10 Sports Betting Tips for Beginners — or head to more advanced strategy — like Key Numbers When Betting Against the Spread — to learn more.
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.
The post Top 3 MLB Betting Picks for Friday, June 11th (2021) appeared first on BettingPros.