PGA Betting Picks and Guide: The 3M Open (2021)

Following a runaway win from Collin Morikawa at last week’s Open Championship, the Tour returns to its rhythm as we now head back stateside to Minnesota this week for the 3M Open. In what will be just the third time the Tour has been here, with the PGA Tour Champions previously stopping here for over 15 years.

As you would expect in a week following a major, the field is fairly thin. However, World #1 Dustin Johnson has decided to suit up and is the odds-on favorite at +800.

Let’s take a closer look at the rest of the field and see where we can find some value.

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Previous Winners of the 3M Open

2020: Michael Thompson
2019: Matthew Wolff

Course Preview (TPC Twin Cities)

Located in a suburb just north of Minneapolis, this course debuted on tour in 2019 and checks in as a par 72 that is 7,164 yards, with a course rating of 75.4 and a slope rating of 143. Designed by Arnold Palmer, with Tom Lehman, the course features few tree hindrances but deep rough and should prove to be a challenge for those that miss the fairway.

The players will once again be playing on bent greens, which we will keep in mind as we look at this week’s field.

Relevant Betting Stats

Driving Accuracy
Par 4 Efficiency: 380-450 Yards
SG: Approach
SG: Off The Tee

Outright PGA Betting Picks

Emiliano Grillo (+3000 on DraftKings Sportsbook)

On a course that will present no shortage of birdie opportunities, Emiliano Grillo is a player that comes to the top of mind and that, as expected, is undervalued this week. He ranks near the top of this week’s field in Birdies or Better Gained over his last 36 rounds and #1 in SG: Approach over their last 24 rounds.

Additionally, if we look at opportunities gained, which is a metric that disregards if a birdie putt was made or not, Grillo ranks #2 in the field over the last 24 rounds played.

And then there’s recent form.

Over the last six events where Grillo made the cut, he finished T15 or higher in five of them, including a T12 last week at the Open Championship. When all was said and done, Grillo led last week in putts per GIR and moved in #5 on Tour in GIR, T1 in the proximity of approach, #1 in par-4 scoring.

Add in a T3 in his only appearance here at the 3M last year, and Grillo is primed to go low and potentially win this week.

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TJ Perun is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from TJ, check out his archive and follow him @JohnnyCovers.

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