PGA Betting Picks and Guide: Rocket Mortgage Classic (2021)

The first PGA Tour event to be held within Detroit’s city limits, the Rocket Mortgage Classic is one of the newer events on tour (replaced the Quicken Loans National) and thus has just two years’ worth of PGA betting picks data to go off of. The tournament will mark just two weeks remaining until the 2021 British Open, the final major of the season, and the field is adjusted accordingly.

With most of the heavy hitters not playing, Bryson DeChambeau (+700) is the field’s favorite by a country mile, with Patrick Reed (+1400), Webb Simpson (+1600), and Hideki Matsuyama (+1600) trailing behind.

Let’s take a look at the rest of the field and see where the value lies.

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.

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Previous Winners of the Rocket Mortgage Classic

2020: Bryson DeChambeau
2019: Nate Lashley

Course Preview (Detroit Golf Club)

Located on the North Side of Detroit and surrounded by an urban center, DCG is a new course for most players currently on tour, but the final score likely won’t be indicative of that. Like last week’s Travelers, the last two year’s fields at the Rocket Mortgage Classic have dominated the course, with an average score of -24.

A Donald Ross-designed course, the pros will play the North Course that comes in at 7,340 yards from the back tees, or just over 10 yards longer than your average course on tour. Like the Travelers, Par-4’s litter the scorecard, with eight in the range of 400-450 yards.

Relevant Betting Stats

Greens in regulation
Driving distance
Par 4 Efficiency: 400-450 Yards
SG: Approach

Outright PGA Betting Picks

Hideki Matsuyama (+1900 on DraftKings Sportsbook)

Since winning the Masters in April, Matsuyama has struggled to put four stellar rounds together but has hardly played bad golf, finishing T26 or higher in both the PGA Championship and the U.S. Open. After taking off last week, he comes into this one fresh and looking to do damage at a course where he’s excelled, with top 25 finishes in both previous appearances and an aggregate score of -28.

A look at the fields Strokes Gained: Approach metrics, a critical metric here at DCG, Matsuyama ranks 1st in proximity 125-150 yards and 3rd in SG: Approach over the last 20 rounds, per @PGASplits101 on Twitter. With the emphasis on holes of 400-450 yards, Matusyma’s approach from that distance is second to none and should set him up for plenty of birdie opportunities throughout the weekend.

In a field that lacks the major talent we typically see, I expect Matsuyama to find himself near the top of the leaderboard come Sunday.

Long-shot Betting Picks

Kevin Kisner (+3500 on DraftKings Sportsbook)

A guy a little bit further down the board that I have my eye on is Kisner, who is coming off a final-round 63 (the same score he put up in his Friday round) and T5 finish at the Travelers last week. In his eight rounds played at DCG, Kisner has shot 66 or lower in three of them.

A closer look at the metrics shows Kisner inside the top 10 in strokes gained putting on Bent/Poa greens (as they’ll see this weekend), in addition to consistently being top 10 on tour in putting outright. Add in a top 3 finish here last year (-18), and I like Kisner to go low once again this weekend on a course he knows well and has dominated in the past.

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TJ Perun is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from TJ, check out his archive and follow him @JohnnyCovers.

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