With only this tournament remaining between now and the Open Championship next week at Royal St George’s Golf Club in England, the field is even lighter than last as far as the elite level talent we typically see week to week on tour. Like we saw at the Rocket Mortgage Classic. However, that doesn’t mean we should expect a lack of action.
While Daniel Berger is the lowest on the board (+110 at DraftKings) as of this writing, Brian Harman (+1300) and Sungjae Im (+1600) trail closely behind.
Let’s take a closer look at the field as a whole and see where we can spot the remaining value.
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
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Previous Winners of the John Deere Classic
2018: Michael Kim
2017: Bryson DeChambeau
2016: Ryan Moore
Course Preview (TPC Deere Run)
Located in Silvis, Illinois, TPC Deere Run will play host once again to the John Deere Classic and is well known for being dominated by the tour pros, with the average score being routinely below -20 by Sunday. At 7,258 total yards and a course rating of 75.8, it is one of the shortest and easiest courses on tour.
Known for its massive greens, putting and specifically putting at distance should play a factor here again this year. One of the highest-rated groups of metrics at this course, par-5 scoring, is another metric we’ll want to keep an eye on.
Relevant Betting Stats
Greens in regulation
Outright PGA Betting Picks
Russel Henley (+2000 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
With consecutive top 20s in his last two outings, Henley comes into this one playing some of the best golf on Tour and likely licking his chops in this depleted field. Despite being in contention on Sunday afternoon at the US Open and letting it slip away, I expect that still to be a confidence boost for Henley that he belongs with the big names on Tour.
Taking a look at Strokes Gained: Approach metrics, critical for success here with the massive greens, Henley ranks inside the top 10 in this field nearly across the board in various proximities. Most notably, he ranks #2 in SG: Approach over his last 24 rounds and #3 SG: Approach on “easy” courses as ranked by the PGA.
In his last event here, Henley finished #2 with a -19 and two rounds sub-64.
Long-shot Betting Picks
Pat Perez (+5500 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
Despite an overall down season for three-time Tour winner, Perez has two T14’s or better in his last three starts and comes into this one playing his best golf of the season. Over his last 24 rounds, Perez ranks fifth in the field Strokes Gained: Birdie or Better.
A look back over his form here at TPC Deere Run shows a -10 (#37) finish his last time out and eight of his last nine rounds here in the 60s. In what is the weakest field he’ll see all season, I like for Perez to go low here, and if his putter can get going, win this one outright.
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TJ Perun is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from TJ, check out his archive and follow him @JohnnyCovers.
The post PGA Betting Picks and Guide: John Deere Classic (2021) appeared first on BettingPros.