Palmetto Championship Betting Picks and Guide (2021)

A weak pre-major field is at Congaree Golf Club in Ridgeland, S.C., this week for the Palmetto Championship ahead of the 2021 US Open. Dustin Johnson, ranked No. 1 in the Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR), tees it up for the first time since a missed cut at the PGA Championship as he prepares for the year’s third major. He’s joined by just four others from the top 25 of the world rankings. It could be a good week to bet long shots, so let’s look at the top Palmetto Championship betting picks.

The Palmetto Championship is replacing the canceled RBC Canadian Open on the PGA Tour schedule. The Canadian Open was canceled for the second straight year due to travel and social gathering restrictions in Canada amid the COVID-19 pandemic. This will be the first PGA Tour event played at Congaree GC.

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Previous Winners of the Palmetto Championship

This will be the first edition of the Palmetto Championship and the first PGA Tour event held at Congaree Golf Club. Last year, the Workday Charity Open at Muirfield Village Golf Club replaced the Canadian Open and it was won by Collin Morikawa.

Course Preview (Congaree Golf Club)

Congaree GC was designed by Tom Fazio and first opened in 2017. It plays to 7,655 yards but with a par of just 71 and is comparable to Australian courses with an emphasis on length and natural, sandy hazards. The greens are comprised of Bermudagrass.

Relevant Betting Stats

Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee
SG: Tee-to-Green
SG: Around-the-Green
Scrambling
Sand Save Percentage

Outright PGA Betting Picks

Tyrrell Hatton (+1400 at William Hill Sportsbook)

Hatton’s a good value at William Hill, compared to DraftKings and BetMGM. There’s also some good value on the top Europeans this week, with fear Johnson and Koepka are both looking ahead to the US Open at Torrey Pines. Johnson, in particular, is playing his first event since a missed cut at the PGA Championship. Koepka tied for second at the PGA Championship but missed the cut at the AT&T Byron Nelson the week prior.

Hatton opened his 2021 schedule with a win at the European Tour’s Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship but has no top-10 finishes through seven PGA Tour events, as he has slipped to No. 11 in the OWGR. Still, he’s the third-highest-ranked golfer in the field. He’s averaging 0.90 Strokes Gained: Approach with 0.49 SG: Off-the-Tee and 1.36 SG: Tee-to-Green this season, according to Data Golf. He’s also 10th on Tour in sand save percentage and is well-equipped to handle Congaree’s most prominent hazard.

Matt Fitzpatrick (+1800 at William Hill Sportsbook)

Fitzpatrick fits into our same narrative with Hatton, except he’s also looking for his first PGA Tour win against the weak field. The Englishman has four top-10 finishes on the PGA Tour this season and each of those was against a considerably stronger field. He has six career European Tour wins, with the most recent of those coming at the DP World Tour Championship, Dubai in December.

He has leaned heavily on strong putting this season, but he’s also gaining 0.21 strokes per round around the green. Fitzpatrick has added distance off the tee and is averaging 0.93 SG: Tee-to-Green per round.

Long-shot Betting Picks

John Pak (+22500 at DraftKings Sportsbook)

When removing the top 15-20 names this week, this is essentially an alternate field event. It’s a good time for Pak, the Ben Hogan Award winner as the nation’s top college golfer, to make his pro debut. The 22-year-old enters the week just 1,182nd in the OWGR with only a T-51 finish at the 2020 US Open on his resume.

In a week where the motivations of the top competitors can be questioned, Pak is worth a long-shot ticket with a $100 bet returning a profit of $22,500. He leads the latest wave of former college stars looking to follow the path of immediate success on Tour enjoyed by Morikawa, Viktor Hovland, and Matthew Wolff.

Will Gordon (+30000 at DraftKings Sportsbook)

Gordon’s our third selection who’s looking for his first PGA Tour victory. Thus far, he has a career-best finish of T-3 at the 2020 Travelers Championship against a star-studded field.

He has struggled mightily with the putter but is averaging 0.27 SG: Off-the-Tee per round.

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Esten McLaren is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Esten, check out his archive and follow him @EstenMclaren.

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