You’ll probably want to sign-up for an account at FoxBet by the end of this article, assuming you don’t have one already. That’s where the best Passing Yard Over/Under Props reside, and it’s not even close.
There are only a few sportsbooks that currently list over/under lines for passing yards. DraftKings Sportsbook and FoxBet have two of the best selections. As you’ll see later in this article, FoxBet has much softer lines.
Keep in mind that each team will play 17 games this season, so the yardage props may seem higher compared to last season. Also, these props don’t have an injury clause: meaning the bet stands whether the player competes in one or 17 games.
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With that, let’s dive into the best bets and most-friendly lines:
Tom Brady OVER 4375.5 Yards (-110 @ Fox Bet)
Tom Brady is going to be 44 years old when the season starts. His production will fall off a cliff sooner or later: think Peyton Manning in his final season. However, I’m betting AGAINST Brady’s downfall in 2021.
The veteran QB threw for 4,633 yards and 40 TDs last season, and the Buccaneers are in a better position to thrive this time around. The FantasyPros baseline projection for Brady is 4,720 passing yards, which assumes full health. He has enough weapons to make that a reality, and there’s plenty of wiggle room if you take OVER 4375.5 yards on FoxBet.
Brady’s line of 4750.5 yards (-115) at DraftKings Sportsbook is too close to call. I’m staying away from that one.
Lamar Jackson OVER 3055.5 Yards (-110 @ Fox Bet)
Overs are fun: let’s do some more of those! Lamar Jackson is another great bet at OVER 3,055.5 passing yards (-110) on Fox Bet. For comparison, his line is 3,450.5 (-115) at DraftKings Sportsbook. You don’t need me to point out that the former is a terrific value.
FantasyPros projects Jackson to throw for 3,377 yards this season, which would comfortably fly above this total. I’m in agreement, as the Baltimore QB has more weapons to consider in 2021. Sammy Watkins, Tylan Wallace, and Rashod Bateman have been added to the receiving corps, which highlights the Ravens’ priority to improve their passing game.
Expect more opportunities with better efficiency from Jackson this season. He should easily beat this passing total if he stays healthy.
Baker Mayfield OVER 3750.5 Yards (-110 @ Fox Bet)
Once again, we are getting some leeway on Fox Bet. Mayfield’s line of OVER 3950.5 yards is tempting on DraftKings as well. The Browns are a run-heavy team, but I believe that is baked into (no pun intended) this low number for Mayfield. WR Odell Beckham Jr. should be fully healthy entering the season, and we have 17 games to work with here. Take the over on Mayfield!
Ryan Tannehill OVER 3925.5 Yards (-110 @ Fox Bet)
I was expecting Tannehill’s number to be marked up considerably following the acquisition of Julio Jones. That’s not the case, at least on Fox Bet. Tannehill’s over/under is 4200.5 passing yards on DraftKings, so we are getting nearly 300 yards to play with on Fox. FantasyPros has him projected at 4151 yards, and I believe the Tennessee QB can sail above that as well. Don’t be shocked if the Titans throw the ball more, especially downfield to a pair of the best receivers in the NFL (Jones & Brown).
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