NBA Parlay Pick: Suns vs. Bucks Game 3, July 11th (2021)

The NBA Finals heads to the “Cream City” for the next two games as the Milwaukee Bucks (0-2) host the Phoenix Suns (2-0) for Game 3 Sunday at Fiserv Forum.

Phoenix won and covered both home games to open the series, and the Bucks are hoping someone besides Giannis Antetokounmpo can step up in Game 3.

The “Greek Freak” put up 42 points on 68.2% shooting with 11 rebounds Thursday, while Suns’ Chris Paul and Devin Booker 54 points on 22-of-45 shooting and 14 assists.

Let’s hone in on Game 3 of the NBA Finals a little further so we can extrapolate value and piece together a profitable “Same Game Parlay.”

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.

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Phoenix Suns +7.5 (-180) alternate spread

Even though I slightly “lean” toward the Bucks winning Game 3 and getting back into this series, I have a lot of doubt in Milwaukee’s ability to win by margin because their best player and offensive focal point is a terrible free throw shooter.

Plus, the gap between Phoenix’s efficiency and Milwaukee’s is too wide for the Bucks to cover this alternate spread. For instance, the Suns are a plus-12 net rating and win in three of the “four factors.”

And not only has Phoenix covered in the first two games of the NBA Finals, but the Suns were also 2-0 ATS in both regular-season meetings with the Bucks.

Lastly, “7” is a key number in NBA spread betting, and if Milwaukee is ahead seven points in the last 10 seconds of the game, there’s a solid chance Phoenix will not foul because it’s almost a certainty you won’t get two possessions in that time.

Phoenix Suns SF Jae Crowder UNDER 10.5 points (-120)

This is my favorite leg of our Same Game Parlay because how often does the fifth scoring option on a team’s starting 5 score in the double digits? Calling Crowder a “fifth scoring option” is a stretch because backup PG Cameron Payne has a much higher usage rate than Crowder.

More importantly, Crowder averaged fewer points per game in the regular season (10.1 PPG) and averaged fewer points per game in the postseason (9.9 PPG) than his Game 3 points prop.

Furthermore, Crowder has scored double digits in just eight of his 19 games this postseason and two of his last seven playoff games.

Also, Crowder scored just 8.5 PPG on 53.1% true shooting (.379/.337/.742) on the road this season compared to 11.5 PPG on 60.9% true shooting (.425/.433/.773) at home.

Milwaukee Bucks PF Giannis Antetokounmpo OVER 32.5 points (-108)

Phoenix doesn’t have the size or the interior defense to check Giannis. The Suns don’t have a legit power forward to defend Giannis in the post, and if they use big Deandre Ayton, Phoenix is running the risk of their only big getting into foul trouble.

According to CleaningTheGlass.com, the Suns ranked 24th in defensive field goal percentage of attempts at the rim, and Giannis scored the most paint points per game in these playoffs, and he averaged the second-most paint points per game during the regular season.

Finally, based on his production and usage in Game 2, I think it’s safe to say Giannis looks to near 100%, and he got two days off in between Games 2 and 3.

Giannis has scored at least 33 points in three of his four games against the Suns this season, and his only game under this number was Game 1 of the NBA Finals when Giannis returned ahead of schedule from his knee injury.

Final parlay odds: +540 (FanDuel Sportsbook)

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