Ultimate Super Bowl LV Prop Bets Guide

You can truly bet on everything in the Super Bowl — some sportsbooks have literally posted lines on National Youth Poet Laureate Amanda Gorman’s poetry (and FiveThirtyEight subsequently posted a breakdown of those lines)!

I’ve broken down the odds and provided my picks for some of the best prop lines at different sportsbooks. Keep reading for my breakdown of the big game! You can also check out our Prop Bet Cheat Sheet for more advice.

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Coin Toss Props

Coin Toss Outcome
Heads: -103, Tails: -103 at DraftKings Sportsbook
Heads: -103, Tails: -103 at FanDuel Sportsbook
Heads: +100, Tails:+100 at FOX Bet

Line Analysis: If you’re betting on the coin toss, head over to FOX Bet for juice-free lines on the outcome.
Pick: Heads.

Coin Toss Call Result
Correct: -106, Incorrect: -106 at DraftKings Sportsbook
Correct: -105, Incorrect: -105 at FanDuel Sportsbook

Line Analysis: There’s less juice at FanDuel for some reason.
Pick: Correct.

Coin Toss Winner
Buccaneers: -106, Chiefs: -106 at DraftKings Sportsbook

Line Analysis: If you think about it, this is the same as the line above because we know that the visiting Kansas City Chiefs will call the toss.
Pick: Chiefs.

To Win Coin Toss and Game
Buccaneers: +355, Chiefs: +205 at DraftKings Sportsbook
Buccaneers: +370, Chiefs: +205 at FanDuel Sportsbook

Line Analysis: This is the moneyline multiplied by a coin toss — literally — and there’s more juice on Tampa Bay at FanDuel.
Pick: Chiefs.

First Quarter Props

Opening Kickoff Props

Opening Kickoff Returned for a Touchdown?
Yes: +5500 FanDuel Sportsbook
Yes: +7500 at FOX Bet

Line Analysis: None of the two sportsbooks posted lines for “no,” and FOX Bet has more juice.
Pick: No (So don’t play this line).

Team To Return the Opening Kickoff
Buccaneers: -188, Chiefs: +140 at FOX Bet

Line Analysis: The sportsbooks expect the Buccaneers to get stuck with the first possession. If the Chiefs win the toss, they’ll defer; if the Buccaneers win, I suspect that they’ll defer, too. I already chose the Chiefs to win the coin toss, but I’ll play the juice here.
Pick: Chiefs

First Play Props

First Offensive Play From Scrimmage
Pass: -143, Run +100 at DraftKings Sportsbook

Line Analysis: These two teams rank top-six in passes per game and bottom-10 in rushes per game, so it’s not surprising to see the numbers slanted toward the pass.
Pick: Run.

First Passing Attempt Props

Result of Patrick Mahomes’ First Pass Attempt
Complete: -200, Incomplete: +155 at FanDuel Sportsbook

Line Analysis: Mahomes has completed 66.3% of his passes this season, which points to value on incomplete.
Pick: Incomplete.

Result of Tom Brady’s First Pass Attempt
Complete: -185, Incomplete: +145 at FanDuel Sportsbook

Line Analysis: Brady has completed 65.7% of his passes this season, which points to value on complete.
Pick: Complete.

First Drive Props

Buccaneers First Drive, First Down
Yes: -335, No +250 at DraftKings Sportsbook

Line Analysis: The Buccaneers got a first down on their first drive in Week 12.
Pick: Yes.

Chiefs First Drive, First Down
Yes: -360, No +260 at DraftKings Sportsbook

Line Analysis: The Chiefs also got a first down on their first drive in Week 12, which they then turned into a field goal.
Pick: Yes.

First Quarter Passing Touchdown Props

Brady to Throw a First-Quarter Touchdown
Over 0.5: +180, Under 0.5: -230 at DraftKings Sportsbook
Yes: +110, No: -140 at FanDuel Sportsbook

Line Analysis: There’s a pretty big disparity between these two sportsbooks, likely due to how they’ve framed their lines. Over/yes bettors are better off at DraftKings, while under/no bettors are better off at FanDuel.
Pick: Yes/Over.

Mahomes to Throw a First-Quarter Touchdown
Over 0.5: +138, Under 0.5: -175 at DraftKings Sportsbook
Yes: +140, No: -180 at FanDuel Sportsbook

Line Analysis: These lines are a bit more consistent. Still, yes/over bettors are better of at FanDuel, while no/under bettors are better off at DraftKings.
Pick: Yes/Over.

First Quarter Rushing Yard Props

Leonard Fournette First-Quarter Rushing Yards
Over 11.5: -112, Under 11.5: -112 DraftKings Sportsbook

Line Analysis: Fournette is averaging 17.6 rushing yards per quarter in the playoffs. He’ll only need one or two first-quarter handoffs to cash this bet.
Pick: Over.

Darrel Williams First-Quarter Rushing Yards
Over 7.5: +155, Under 7.5: -200 DraftKings Sportsbook

Line Analysis: Williams is averaging 16.3 rushing yards per quarter through Kansas City’s first two playoff games — even with Edwards-Helaire back in the lineup.
Pick: Over.

Ronald Jones First-Quarter Rushing Yards
Over 9.5: -112, Under 9.5: -112 DraftKings Sportsbook

Line Analysis: Jones has played in two of Tampa Bay’s playoff games, and he’s averaging just 9.8 rushing yards per quarter. He posted only 16 yards against the Packers, too.
Pick: Under.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire First-Quarter Rushing Yards
Over 7.5: -112, Under 7.5: -112 DraftKings Sportsbook

Line Analysis: CEH ran for a total of seven yards last week against the Bills.
Pick: Under.

First Quarter Receiving Yard Props

Travis Kelce First-Quarter Receiving Yards
Over 23.5: -112, Under 23.5: -112 at DraftKings Sportsbook

Line Analysis: Kelce is averaging 28.4 receiving yards per quarter through two playoff games.
Pick: Over.

Tyreek Hill First-Quarter Receiving Yards
Over 22.5: -112, Under 22.5: -112 at DraftKings Sportsbook

Line Analysis: Tyreek Hill toasted the Buccaneers for 200 first-quarter receiving yards in Week 12.
Pick: Over.

Chris Godwin First-Quarter Receiving Yards
Over 19.5: -112, Under 19.5: -112 at DraftKings Sportsbook

Line Analysis: Godwin is averaging 18.6 receiving yards per quarter through three playoff games.
Pick: Under.

Mike Evans First-Quarter Receiving Yards
Over 17.5: -112, Under 17.5: -112 at DraftKings Sportsbook

Line Analysis: Evans is averaging 14.4 receiving yards per quarter through three playoff games. That said, he can convert the over on a single long-range reception.
Pick: Over.

Sammy Watkins First-Quarter Receiving Yards
Over 8.5: -112, Under 8.5: -112 at DraftKings Sportsbook

Line Analysis: Watkins hasn’t played since Week 16. He averaged 10.5 receiving yards per quarter in games he did play, however. He also averaged 24.5 receiving yards per quarter in Super Bowl LIV.
Pick: Over.

Rob Gronkowski First-Quarter Receiving Yards
Over 7.5: -112, Under 7.5: -112 at DraftKings Sportsbook

Line Analysis: Gronk is averaging 3.6 receiving yards per quarter through three playoff games.
Pick: Under.

First Half Props

First Half Passing Touchdown Props

Brady First-Half Touchdown
Over 1.5: +230, Under: 1.5 -305 at DraftKings Sportsbook

Line Analysis: Brady hasn’t done much in the first halves (and quarters) of his nine Super Bowls.
Pick: Under.

Mahomes First-Half Touchdown
Over 1.5: +180, Under 1.5: -230 at DraftKings Sportsbook

Line Analysis: Mahomes threw two first-half touchdowns against the Buccaneers in Week 12.
Pick: Over.

First Half Rushing Yard Props

Leonard Fournette First-Half Rushing Yards
Over 25.5: -112, Under 25.5: -112 at DraftKings Sportsbook

Line Analysis: Fournette is averaging 35.2 rushing yards per half through three playoff games.
Pick: Over.

Darrel Williams First-Half Rushing Yards
Over 15.5: +101, Under 15.5: -125 at DraftKings Sportsbook

Line Analysis: Williams is averaging 32.6 rushing yards per half through three playoff games.
Pick: Over.

Ronald Jones First-Half Rushing Yards
Over 19.5: -112, Under 19.5: -112 at DraftKings Sportsbook

Line Analysis: Jones is averaging 19.6 rushing yards per half through in his two playoff appearances.
Pick: Over.

Clyde Edwards-Heliare First-Half Rushing Yards
Over 15.5: -112, Under 15.5: -112 at DraftKings Sportsbook

Line Analysis: CEH’s playoff struggles point to value on the under, but it’s very hard not to play the over here. He just needs to crack a single big play.
Pick: Over.

First Half Receiving Yard Props

Travis Kelce First-Half Receiving Yards
Over 46.5: -112, Under 46.5: -112 at DraftKings Sportsbook

Line Analysis: Kelce is averaging 56.8 receiving yards per half through two playoff games.
Pick: Over.

Tyreek Hill First-Half Receiving Yards
Over 45.5: -112, Under 45.5: -112 at DraftKings Sportsbook

Line Analysis: As I said above, Tyreek Hill toasted the Buccaneers for 200 first-quarter receiving yards in Week 12. He should easily have a quarter of that by the end of the first half.
Pick: Over.

Chris Godwin First-Half Receiving Yards
Over 38.5: -105, Under 38.5: -120 at DraftKings Sportsbook

Line Analysis: Godwin is averaging 37.2 receiving yards per half through three playoff games. Perhaps that’s why the juice is on the under.
Pick: Under.

Mike Evans First-Half Receiving Yards
Over 33.5: +110, Under 33.5: -137 at DraftKings Sportsbook

Line Analysis: Evans is averaging 28.8 receiving yards per half through three playoff games. Again, his long-range usage makes him a threat to bust this total on one catch, so I have to take the over in the plus money here.
Pick: Over.

Sammy Watkins First-Half Receiving Yards
Over 16.5: -112, Under 16.5: -112 at DraftKings Sportsbook

Line Analysis: Watkins hasn’t played since Week 16. During the regular season, he averaged 21 receiving yards per half in games he did play. He also averaged 49 receiving yards per half in Super Bowl LIV. He just needs to make a single splash play to hit the over.
Pick: Over.

Rob Gronkowski First-Half Receiving Yards
Over 15.5: +105, Under 15.5: -130 at DraftKings Sportsbook

Line Analysis: Gronk is averaging 7.2 receiving yards per half through three playoff games. That said, there’s not a ton of value on the under, and Gronk can crack it with one big play.
Pick: Over (or don’t bet this line).

“First” Props

First Reception Props

First Reception
Travis Kelce: +500, Tyreek Hill: +550, Chris Godwin: +600, Mike Evans: +700, Antonio Brown: +1100, Leonard Fournette: +1100, Clyde Edwards-Helaire: +1300, Cameron Brate: +1400, Darrel Williams: +2000 at DraftKings Sportsbook

Line Analysis: Remember, this play depends upon the coin toss result, too. I’d look for a dump-off to a running back here, especially given their longshot odds.
Pick: Darrel Williams.

First Team Reception: Buccaneers
Chris Godwin: +250, Mike Evans: +300, Antonio Brown: +500, Leonard Fournette: +600, Cameron Brate: +750, Scotty Miller: +900, Rob Gronkowski: +1000 at DraftKings Sportsbook
Chris Godwin: +260, Mike Evans: +360, Antonio Brown: +440, Leonard Fournette: +450, Cameron Brate: +750, Rob Gronkowski: +900, Scotty Miller: +1200 at FanDuel Sportsbook

Line Analysis: You can get better value on the star receivers at FanDuel. If you prefer Fournette or Gronk, head over to DraftKings.
Pick: Chris Godwin.

First Team Reception: Chiefs
Travis Kelce: +200, Tyreek Hill: +225, Clyde Edwards-Helaire: +600, Sammy Watkins: +800, Darrel Williams: +1000 at DraftKings Sportsbook
Travis Kelce: +210, Tyreek Hill: +260, Clyde Edwards-Helaire: +600, Sammy Watkins: +600, Darrel Williams: +1100 at FanDuel Sportsbook

Line Analysis: There’s much better value on Hill, Kelce, and Williams at FanDuel. If you like Watkins, head to DraftKings.
Pick: Darrel Williams.

Quarterback First Props

First Quarterback Touchdown Pass
Patrick Mahomes: -120, Tom Brady: -105 at FanDuel Sportsbook

Line Analysis: I fully expect the Chiefs to start out hot after their success in Week 12.
Pick: Mahomes.

First Quarterback Sacked
Patrick Mahomes: -125, Tom Brady: +100 at FanDuel Sportsbook

Line Analysis: Tampa Bay ranked sixth in regular-season sacks per game (2.9). Kansas City ranked 19th (2.1).
Pick: Mahomes.

First Quarterback Intercepted
Patrick Mahomes: +120, Tom Brady: -155 at FanDuel Sportsbook

Line Analysis: Tampa Bay ranked fourth in interceptions per game (1.1). Kansas City ranked fifth (1.0). I’ll eat the juice and bet against Brady.
Pick: Brady.

First Penalty Props

First Accepted Penalty Against
Chiefs: -115, Buccaneers: -115 at FanDuel Sportsbook

Line Analysis: This one’s a toss-up. The Buccaneers may need to take extra steps to stop Tyreek Hill, so let’s go with them.
Pick: Buccaneers.

First Accepted Penalty
False Start: +370, Holding: +290, Unnecessary Roughness: +1600, Other: -135 at FanDuel Sportsbook

Line Analysis: Super Bowl jitters are real. Expect someone to jump too early on offense (false start) or on defense (other).
Pick: False Start OR Other.

First Team Penalized for False Start
Buccaneers: -115, Chiefs: -115 at FanDuel Sportsbook

Line Analysis: Hm. This one’s tough, but with the quality of Tampa Bay’s defensive line, the Chiefs might get jumpy.
Pick: Chiefs.

First Team Penalized for Holding
Buccaneers: -115, Chiefs: -115 at FanDuel Sportsbook

Line Analysis: The Buccaneers’ front seven is terrifying. They’ve allowed the second-fewest rushing yards per game through the playoffs, and the Chiefs could get caught holding here.
Pick: Chiefs.

First Team Penalized for Pass Interference
Buccaneers: +100, Chiefs: -130 at FanDuel Sportsbook

Line Analysis: The Buccaneers won’t be able to keep up with Tyreek Hill. They might take some aggressive countermeasures to keep him in check — resulting in a penalty.
Pick: Buccaneers.

Full-Game Player Props

Passing Touchdown Props

Brady Passing Touchdowns
Over 1.5: -230, Under: 1.5 +180 at DraftKings Sportsbook
Over 2.5: +125, Under: 2.5 -157 at DraftKings Sportsbook

Line Analysis: Brady tossed three touchdown passes against the Chiefs in Week 12.
Pick: Over 1.5 OR Over 2.5.

Mahomes Passing Touchdowns
Over 2.5: -155, Under 2.5: +125 at DraftKings Sportsbook
Over 3.5: +185, Under 3.5: -240 at DraftKings Sportsbook

Line Analysis: Mahomes threw three touchdown passes against the Buccaneers in Week 12.
Pick: Over 2.5.

Passing Yard Props

Brady Passing Yards
Over 295.5: -118, Under: 295.5: -106 at DraftKings Sportsbook
Over 296.5: -110, Under: 296.5: -110 at FanDuel Sportsbook

Line Analysis: Brady threw for 345 yards against the Chiefs in Week 12. With one yard and a whole lot of juice separating these lines, head to FanDuel.
Pick: Over (FD).

Mahomes Passing Yards
Over 325.5: -112, Under 325.5: -112 at DraftKings Sportsbook
Over 329.5: -110, Under: 329.5: -110 at FanDuel Sportsbook

Line Analysis: Mahomes threw for 462 yards against the Buccaneers in Week 12. Without much juice differential, play the line at DraftKings.
Pick: Over (DK).

More Passing Yards
Patrick Mahomes: -165, Tom Brady: +130 at DraftKings Sportsbook
Patrick Mahomes: -155, Tom Brady: +120 at FanDuel Sportsbook

Line Analysis: I’m siding with the books’ totals by taking Mahomes, but if you’re a big-time Brady fan, you can get more value on him at DraftKings.
Pick: Mahomes (FD).

Rushing Yard Props

Leonard Fournette Rushing Yards
Over 48.5: -118, Under 48.5: -106 at DraftKings Sportsbook
Over 48.5: -110, Under: 48.5: -110 at FanDuel Sportsbook

Line Analysis: Fournette is averaging 70-plus rushing yards per game in the playoffs. If you believe in him, head over to FanDuel for the best juice.
Pick: Over (FD).

Darrel Williams Rushing Yards
Over 30.5: -106, Under 30.5: -118 at DraftKings Sportsbook
Over 29.5: -105, Under: 29.5: -115 at FanDuel Sportsbook

Line Analysis: Williams is averaging 65.2 rushing yards game in the playoffs. That said, the Buccaneers have an elite rushing defense. I still like the over, though, and I’ll take the extra yard at FanDuel.
Pick: Over (FD).

Ronald Jones Rushing Yards
Over 37.5: -118, Under 37.5: -106 at DraftKings Sportsbook

Line Analysis: Jones is averaging 39.2 rushing yards per game through his two playoff appearances. There is no line posted over at FanDuel. But since I expect the Buccaneers to have to play from behind, especially in the second half, I’ll go with the under.
Pick: Under.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire Rushing Yards
Over 30.5: -112, Under 30.5: -112 at DraftKings Sportsbook

Line Analysis: CEH’s playoff struggles point to value on the under. I suspect that the Chiefs will try to run out the clock late, so even though I have a lot of faith in Tampa Bay’s defensive line, I think I’ll play the over.
Pick: Over.

Receiving Yard Props

Travis Kelce Receiving Yards
Over 94.5: -141, Under 94.5: +114 at DraftKings Sportsbook
Over 98.5: -110, Under: 98.5: -110 at FanDuel Sportsbook

Line Analysis: Kelce is averaging 113.5 receiving yards per game through the playoffs, but he finished with only 82 receiving yards against Tampa Bay in Week 12. Take the plus money.
Pick: Under (DK).

Tyreek Hill Receiving Yards
Over 92.5: -125, Under 92.5: +101 at DraftKings Sportsbook
Over 94.5: -110, Under: 94.5: -110 at FanDuel Sportsbook

Line Analysis: Tyreek Hill should pop off. He finished with 269 receiving yards against the Chiefs in Week 12, less than half of this posted total.
Pick: Over (FD).

Chris Godwin Receiving Yards
Over 77.5: -106, Under 77.5: -118 at DraftKings Sportsbook
Over 73.5: -110, Under: 73.5: -110 at FanDuel Sportsbook

Line Analysis: Godwin is averaging 74.4 receiving yards per game through the playoffs. I’ll take the under, but I want the four extra yards.
Pick: Under (DK).

Mike Evans Receiving Yards
Over 63.5: -106, Under 63.5: -118 at DraftKings Sportsbook
Over 63.5: -110, Under: 63.5: -110 at FanDuel Sportsbook

Line Analysis: The same totals with different levels of juice. Evans is averaging 57.6 receiving yards per game through three playoff appearances, and he’s only gone over once. Since the Buccaneers will probably have to play from behind, let’s take the over anyway.
Pick: Over (FD).

Sammy Watkins Receiving Yards
Over 36.5: -112, Under 36.5: -112 at DraftKings Sportsbook

Line Analysis: Watkins averaged 42 receiving yards per game in the regular season. He also finished with 98 receiving yards in last year’s Super Bowl.
Pick: Over.

Rob Gronkowski Receiving Yards
Over 29.5: -118, Under 29.5: -106 at DraftKings Sportsbook
Over 31.5: -110, Under: 31.5: -110 at FanDuel Sportsbook

Line Analysis: Gronk has disappeared in the playoffs, but he just needs to make one big splash play to cash this total. Since I expect Tampa Bay to be playing from behind, you can roll the dice on the over.
Pick: Over (FD).

Game Props

Super Bowl MVP

Super Bowl MVP Winner
Patrick Mahomes: -106, Tom Brady: +210, Tyreek Hill: +1200, Travis Kelce: +1300, Leonard Fournette: +2500 at DraftKings Sportsbook
Patrick Mahomes: -105, Tom Brady: +200, Tyreek Hill: +1400, Travis Kelce: +1500, Leonard Fournette: +3000 at FanDuel Sportsbook

Line Analysis: I like Mahomes for Super Bowl MVP, but if you want a longshot, Hill’s explosive game against the Buccaneers in Week 12 makes him a good underdog bet.
Pick: Mahomes OR Hill.

“Most” Props

Most Field Goals
Buccaneers: -106, Chiefs: -118 at DraftKings Sportsbook

Line Analysis: The Buccaneers may upend more Chiefs drives than vice-versa, so I’ll roll with Kansas City here.
Pick: Chiefs.

Most Penalties Accepted Against
Buccaneers: +110, Chiefs: -140 at FanDuel Sportsbook

Line Analysis: The Buccaneers may get desperate late if they’re playing from behind, so I’ll take them in the plus money.
Pick: Buccaneers.

Most Punts
Buccaneers: -141, Chiefs: +112 at DraftKings Sportsbook

Line Analysis: I honestly expect the Chiefs to punt enough in the late-game to cash their line in the plus money.
Pick: Chiefs.

Most Turnovers
Buccaneers: -124, Chiefs: +100 at DraftKings Sportsbook

Line Analysis: Brady has been the more turnover-prone quarterback this postseason, so I’ll side with the favorites.
Pick: Buccaneers.

Touchdown Props

Total Touchdowns
Over 6.5: -114, Under 6.5: -118 at DraftKings Sportsbook

Line Analysis: These teams combined for six touchdowns in Week 12.
Pick: Under.

Team to Score Longest Touchdown
Buccaneers: +115, Chiefs: -143 at DraftKings Sportsbook
Buccaneers: +105, Chiefs: -135 at FanDuel Sportsbook

Line Analysis: I’m already all-in on Tyreek Hill, and this is functionally another one of his lines.
Pick: Chiefs (FD).

Total Yards of Longest Touchdown
Over 45.5: -114, Under 45.5: -114 at DraftKings Sportsbook
Over 46.5: +100, Under 46.5: -130 at FanDuel Sportsbook

Line Analysis: While 50-plus yard touchdowns are rare, the Buccaneers have allowed at least one of them in their last two games, so I’ll take the plus-money over.
Pick: Over (FD).

Game Specials and Novelty Props

Game Specials

Safety Scored
Yes +800, No: -1667 at DraftKings Sportsbook

Line Analysis: I love Tampa Bay’s defensive line. We saw three-straight Super Bowl safeties scored from Super Bowl XLVI to Super Bowl XLVIII, and we’re due for another one this Sunday.
Pick: Yes.

Two-Point Conversion Scored
Yes: +230, No: -305 at DraftKings Sportsbook
Yes: +240, No: -330 at FanDuel Sportsbook

Line Analysis: The Buccaneers and Chiefs both attempt 0.2 conversions per game. I’ll bet against one happening on Sunday.
Pick: No.

Total Sacks
Over 4.5: +120, Under 4.5: -148 at DraftKings Sportsbook
Over 4.5: +120, Under 4.5: -155 at FanDuel Sportsbook

Line Analysis: The Buccaneers get 2.9 sacks per game, while the Chiefs get 2.1. That adds up to a total north of this line, and with Kansas City’s offensive line issues, I’ll take the over.
Pick: Over.

Novelty Props

Color of Gatorade Bath
Orange: +125, Red/Pink: +300, Clear/Water: +350, Yellow/Green/Lime: +450, Blue: +750, Purple: 900 at FanDuel Sportsbook

Line Analysis: The Chiefs dumped orange Gatorade on AndyReid last year, and I expect them to do it again.
Pick: Orange.

Fat Man Touchdown (Any OL/DL)
Yes: +800, No: -2000 at DraftKings Sportsbook

Line Analysis: This isn’t going to happen. Feel free to use “no” as a parlay sweetener.
Pick: No.

Any Field Goal Doink
Yes: +375, No: -590 at DraftKings Sportsbook
Yes: +490, No: -750 at FanDuel Sportsbook

Line Analysis: Again, just something doesn’t just happen because people want to see it.
Pick: No.

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