Top NBA Betting Picks for Wednesday, April 28

Did anyone have Anfernee Simons tying the NBA’s record for consecutive made three-pointers on their 2020-21 betting card? I hope so, as the Portland reserve player hit 13 of them in a row last night against the Pacers. We almost certainly won’t see that again tonight, but no matter — there’s still plenty of value elsewhere on the slate!

Here are the top NBA betting plays for Wednesday, April 28, provided by BettingPros experts James Bisson, Raju Byfield, and Isaiah Sirois (Main game odds courtesy BettingPros Consensus; lock and prop odds sites may vary):

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Check out our NBA Prop Bet Cheat Sheet for the top bets of the day >>

Betting Lock of the Day

Sirois: Spurs +5 (–110 at FD Sportsbook)
My NBA betting model has identified four stone-cold locks in its two-week run, and all have cashed. It’s discovered another one tonight: Spurs +5. It favors San Antonio for a handful of reasons. First, the efficiency metrics actually favor the Spurs by a 1.4-point margin — they outrank the Heat in offensive efficiency on the year (18th to 24th) and through the last three games (8th to 17th). While the Heat outrank them in defensive efficiency on the year (5th to 11th), the Spurs have been better over the last three (12th to 23rd). Second, the Spurs have been fantastic on the road, as they boast an NBA-best 20-8 ATS record away from their home court. Third, even though they won’t have Derrick White, they still have enough quality personnel per FiveThirtyEight’s RAPTOR ratings to keep this one close.

Top Game Prop of the Day

Sirois: Heat Under 109.5 (–115 at FD Sportsbook)
This play is an extension of the one above, but I’m comfortable doubling down. The Heat average just 106.3 points per game, the fourth-lowest such number in the NBA. Why? Well, they play at the association’s third-slowest pace, and they’ve been abysmally inefficient on offense. Meanwhile, San Antonio plays decent defense, as they rank 11th in defensive efficiency on the year. When these teams met in San Antonio last week, Miami scored only 107 points. My one concern is that White is San Antonio’s second-best defender, per FiveThirtyEight, and he isn’t playing.  

Top Player Prop of the Day 

Sirois: Nikola Jokic Over 1.5 Made Threes (+104 at FD Sportsbook)
Oh boy — here’s another plus-money player prop lock! Jokic made exactly three three-pointers in his past two outings against the Pels and their second-worst perimeter defense. They give up the second-most made threes per game (14.6) and the second-most to centers (1.4). Jokic may average only 1.4 made threes per game, but I suspect he may pull up a bit more frequently with so many of Denver’s offensive playmakers sidelined. This prop has cashed twice this season — and by a full extra made three — so this line offers a ton of value.    

Check out our NBA Prop Bet Cheat Sheet for the top bets of the day >>

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