Our betting record sits at an even 3-3 after each Sunday has returned us a 1-1 record on our top picks through the first three weeks of the MLB season.
All six of our previous bets have been simple moneyline wagers, but now that each team has a solid sample size worth of games under their respective belts, we can look to expand our horizons and dive into a few different kinds of bets.
Here are Sunday’s best bets for the MLB slate, complete with a strikeout prop, a first-inning run total bet, and my favorite moneyline wager of the afternoon.
YTD: 3-3 (-0.6u)
View the best player prop bets for today’s slate with our MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>
Dylan Bundy Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+110)
It’s strange to see not only Bundy’s K-prop at such an attainable number, but to also be able to grab this line at plus money is the perfect storm.
Bundy has hit this total in each of his four starts this season, including a 10-strikeout performance against these Astros in his second start of the year. Bundy has reinvented himself after a mostly failed stint in Baltimore, mostly thanks to a decrease in four-seam fastball usage and increased focus on throwing his changeup and curveball.
Bundy’s strikeout rate is in the 68th percentile among all major league pitchers, his whiff rate is in the 70th percentile, and his chase rate is one of the best in baseball, ranking in the 97th percentile. Against current Astros, Bundy’s strikeout rate is 21.7%, and he’s been especially tough against Alex Bregman, Martin Maldonado, Yuli Gurriel, and Yordan Alvarez, all of whom have a strikeout rate above 20% against Bundy for their careers, and a whiff rate of above 24%.
Bundy has only thrown less than six innings once this year, and with his past success against this Astros lineup, it’s tough to pass up this number at plus-odds.
Kansas City Royals ML (-120)
We’ve had luck betting on teams trying to complete a weekend sweet, so we’re giving it another shot here with Kansas City.
The Royals have been one of the pleasant surprises of the MLB season thus far, jumping out to a 12-7 record. On Sunday, they’ll send Danny Duffy to the mound, who has simply been spectacular to start the year. Duffy has posted a 0.50 ERA and 19 strikeouts across three starts while pitching a full six innings in each.
On Sunday, he’ll face off against the light-hitting Detroit Tigers, who come into the game 25th in team strikeouts, 29th in hits per game, and dead-last in OPS. They’ve also managed to plate just three total runs in the series thus far. Against current Tigers, Duffy owns a strikeout rate of 25.9%, and he’s holding hitters to a respectable 0.317 xwOBA.
Michael Fulmer, who the Tigers will send to the hill, hasn’t had a ton of success against the current Royals roster. His strikeout rate is just 16.7% against the probable Royals lineup, and Kansas City is hitting .295 as a team against him.
A -120 line feels too short on a Sunday afternoon, so we’ll happily take it in a plus-matchup for Kansas City.
Cleveland Indians/New York Yankees Under 0.5 Runs in the First Inning (-105)
First inning totals are the most exciting wagers in baseball. Not only is every pitch in the first frame monumentally important to the outcome of the bet, but the wager itself is also over within 15 minutes, so our need for instant gratification is satisfied.
This game has the lowest probability of a run scoring in the first inning of any game on the Sunday slate – just an 11.8% probability, or an 88.2% likelihood the score is still 0-0 after one. The -105 line implies a 51.2% probability of no runs, so we’re getting quite an edge.
Jameson Taillon and Triston McKenzie have combined for five starts this year, and neither has allowed a first-inning run yet. What’s more: the Yankees are the worst first inning offense in baseball, averaging a miserable 0.05 runs per game in the first inning. They’ve scored in just one of 20 first innings this year, also the lowest in the league.
Cleveland is 10th in MLB in first-inning scoring, averaging 0.58 runs in the first frame, but that number is a bit deceiving. They’ve only scored in five of 19 possible firsts (26.3%), but three of the five times they did score, they put up three runs.
At almost even money and with such an edge according to my projections, I think this is a great bet to kick off an exciting Sunday.
View the top deposit bonuses and promo codes for each sportsbook >>
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts
Whether you’re new to sports betting or a betting pro, our How To Bet and Sports Betting Strategy and Advice pages are for you. You can get started with our Sports Betting 101 Section — including 10 Sports Betting Tips for Beginners — or head to more advanced sports betting strategy — like Key Numbers When Betting Against the Spread — to learn more.
Mike Wagenman is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @mjwags23.
The post Top MLB Betting Picks for Sunday, April 25th (2021) appeared first on BettingPros.