There’s nothing quite like loading up on prop bets ahead of the Super Bowl.
Beginner bettors might not have experienced this sensation yet, but once they do, their wagering experience will never be the same. Imagine watching The Big Game with your family and friends, and exclaiming with glee as you watch a 350-pound defensive lineman grab a loose ball and do the “fumble rumble” 40 yards for a score.
Yes, you can bet on either the Tampa Bay Buccaneers or Kansas City Chiefs scoring a “fat guy touchdown” – and that isn’t the only outrageous prop that sportsbooks will break out for the 55th edition of the Super Bowl this Sunday at Raymond James Stadium. Here’s my list of the 50 best prop wagers being offered, with odds and sportsbook provided (odds subject to change):
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50. Will There Be a Safety? (Yes: +650, No: -1000 on William Hill)
Are we going to see a Safety Dance in Tampa? This is always one of the most popular bet among casual players, since it’s straight-forward and the potential payout is enormous. There have been a total of nine safeties in Super Bowl history, which works out to roughly 16.7 percent of Super Bowl contests featuring at least one. For what it’s worth, Tampa Bay did not allow a safety during the regular season, while the Chiefs surrendered one in a Week 15 victory over the New Orleans Saints.
49. Will Patrick Mahomes Throw a 2nd-Quarter TD? (Yes: -145, No: +115 on FanDuel Sportsbook)
Based on the total of this game (in the mid-50s and likely to stay there, if not rise higher), you might expect Mahomes to throw a touchdown pass in every quarter. So why focus on the one before halftime? That’s an easy one: Mahomes has thrown 37 second-quarter touchdown passes in the regular season over his career, 10 more than any other quarter. It’s no surprise, then, that FD Sportsbook has these odds quite a bit higher than his TD props for the first and third quarters (+120 and +100, respectively.)
48. How Many Sacks Will Jason Pierre-Paul Have? (Less Than 1: -175, 1 or More: +125 on Fox Bet)
JPP is no stranger to Super Bowl lore, having been a proud member of a New York Giants team that stunned the unbeaten New England Patriots (led by you-know-who) en route to an unexpected Super Bowl XLVI title. Now, he and Tom Brady are on the same side – and while this sack prop is a bit of a longshot to hit, Pierre-Paul does have two sacks through the Buccaneers’ first three playoff games. He also sacked Patrick Mahomes in Kansas City’s 27-24 win over Tampa Bay back in Week 12.
47. How Many Players Will Complete a Pass? (Over 2.5: +250, Under 2.5: -335 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
This feels like the kind of game where we might see some trickery. Not only do you have two of the savviest quarterbacks in the business (though they come by their creativity in vastly different ways), you have a situation where both sides know it’ll probably take 30+ points to pull out the win. So don’t be surprised to see a player other than Brady or Mahomes complete a pass in this one (if you’re feeling a little risk averse, the odds on players attempting a pass are +165 for over 2.5 and -215 for under 2.5).
46. Rob Gronkowski TD/Buccaneers to Win (+450 on BetMGM)
There’s no guarantee that the Buccaneers will win if Rob Gronkowski catches a TD pass, or that they’ll lose if he doesn’t. But you can’t overlook the fact that all seven Gronk spikes in 2020 came in games that the Buccaneers won. And while it’s true that Tampa Bay won more than twice as many games as it lost, his per-game receptions and yards totals were nearly identical whether Tampa Bay won or lost. There’s little rhyme or reason to this trend, of course, but it’s still a fun one to bet!
45. Will Either Team Miss 2+ FGs in the Game? (Yes: +400, No: -500 on William Hill)
Want to turn a $100 bet into a $20 profit? Maybe? Well then this might just be the prop for you. The chances of either team missing multiple field goals in Tampa on Sunday is quite low, at least based on both sides’ success rate during the regular season. The Chiefs’ Harrison Butker ranked ninth among full-time kickers with a 92.6-percent success rate (25-for-27) and is 4-of-5 in the playoffs. Tampa’s Ryan Succop placed 11th during the season (28-of-31, 90.3 percent) and is a perfect 8-for-8 in the postseason.
44. Will the Last Play Be a Quarterback Kneel? (Yes: -150, No: +120 on FanDuel Sportsbook)
There really isn’t much to discuss regarding the actual prop: you’re basically wagering on whether the team with the lead will have the football to end the game, or whether the trailing team will run out of time on its final possession. But this is a great time to mention just how utterly ruinous Mahomes was in last year’s Super Bowl win, when he went into the final seconds with 44 rushing yards – well above his prop total – only to lose 15 yards on his final three kneeldowns and send every Over bettor into fits of rage. Prop betting!
43. How Many Yards Will the Shortest TD Be? (Under 1.5 Yards: -200; Over 1.5 Yards:+150 on Fox Bet)
“Down at the 1” is one of the best or worst things a bettor or fantasy player can hear – and oddsmakers believe we’ll see at least one scoring play from one yard out at the Super Bowl. But before you lay that bet down on the Under, consider this: Of the 57 touchdowns the Chiefs scored during the regular season, only four came from a yard out. That said, the number was considerably higher for the Buccaneers, who produced 11 one-yard touchdowns out of 59 total TDs on the season.
42a. Tyreek Hill to Score 3+ Touchdowns (+1000 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
42b. Antonio Brown to Score 3+ Touchdowns (+10000 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
42c. Rob Gronkowski to Score 3+ Touchdowns (+12500 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
There are just nine active players who have multiple three-touchdown games in their career – and astonishingly, three of them are playing in this game. But while taking either Brown or Gronk to repeat the feat at Super Bowl LV might be a sucker’s bet, there will be some bettors intrigued by the Hill play, considering that his previous three-TD effort came against these very same Buccaneers in Week 12. It’s still a longshot, but you could do worse than throwing a buck or two here and hoping for the best.
41. Which Team Will Commit the First Penalty? (Buccaneers: -110, Chiefs: -110 on BetMGM)
A-ha! Finally, a prop bet where I can offer you a potential edge. The Chiefs were a far less disciplined team than you might expect for a 14-2 unit, committing the second-most penalties in the league (115) while finishing with the fourth-most penalty yards (1,006). Tampa Bay, on the other hand, had the 14th-most flags (96) but drew the third-most penalties (106). With KC rocking a minus-16 flag differential and the Buccaneers at plus-10, you might just be better off taking the home side here.
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40. Will There Be a 4th-Down Conversion? (Yes: -360, No: +300 on William Hill)
A decade ago, the odds for Yes and No were a lot closer together. But with head coaches largely becoming more willing to take chances on fourth down, it’s almost a foregone conclusion that we’ll see a conversion Sunday. The Buccaneers and Chiefs combined to average fewer than one conversion per game during the season, but you don’t need many fourth-down shots when you go a combined 25-7. More telling: Their opponents combined to make good on 45 total fourth-down conversion.
39. Will Either Quarterback Throw For 6+ TDs? (Yes: +1000, No: -3000 on FanDuel Sportsbook)
This could be the easiest dollar you ever make – but you’ll need to wager $30 to get it. There has been only one quarterback finish with six passing TDs at a Super Bowl: 49ers star Steve Young, who turned the trick in a 49-26 triumph over the San Diego Chargers at Super Bowl XXIX. Brady and Mahomes are two of the five active quarterbacks with 6+ passing scores in a game, but Brady hasn’t done it in 12 years, and Mahomes will be hard-pressed to reach that milestone against a Buccaneers defense that allowed just 16 passing TDs in eight home games during the season.
38. Exact Final Score: Chiefs 31, Buccaneers 17 (+9000 on Fox Bet)
Allow me to connect the dots for you here. When it comes to the winning Super Bowl team’s final score, 27 and 31 are the two most common occurrences, with each happening five times in the history of the game. On the flip side, the losing team has scored either 10 or 17 points on eight different occasions each, tied for the most common losing score. Since the Chiefs are favored, and the total for this game is one of the highest in history, we’re taking the top end of both sides and predicting a 14-point KC win at life-changing odds.
37. First Team to Use a Coaches Challenge (Buccaneers -112, Chiefs -112 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
You couldn’t even bet on this a few years ago – so thank the NFL for inadvertently creating more Super Bowl opportunities for you, the sports bettor! This prop is an intriguing one (like most on this list), primarily because of the huge chasm in challenges between Chiefs head coach Andy Reid (one) and Tampa Bay sideline boss Bruce Arians (seven). That gap grows to 20-9 in Arians’ favor over the past two seasons, which suggests that Tampa Bay is the superior play here.
36. Will the Chiefs Score in Every Quarter? (Yes: +125, No: -150 on BetMGM)
Few teams can match the Chiefs’ offensive firepower – and all the proof you need is in how often they scored during the regular season. Kansas City recorded points in 54 out of 64 quarters played, with only one game in which it scored in fewer than three of four quarters. The Chiefs scored in every quarter seven times, capped by a stretch of five straight games with points in every quarter from Weeks 6-11. They went 3-for-4 in last year’s Super Bowl win over the 49ers. There’s risk here, but it’s a fun bet nonetheless.
35. What Will Be the First Penalty Called? (Holding: +275, False Start: +280 on William Hill)
Bettors have other options to choose from here (listed at the end), but I’m focusing on these two since they occurred most frequently. Per NFLPenalties.com, we saw 648 holding penalties (474 on the offensive side, 174 on the defensive end) on the season compared to 517 false start infractions. Given the gap here – and the fact that we should see fewer false start threats with the lack of deafening crowd noise – the holding prop is a sneaky value play at bettor-friendly odds.
Other penalties with odds: Offside/Neutral Zone/Encroachment: +425, Pass Interference: +700, Illegal Block: +700, Delay of Game: +1400, No Penalty: +10000, Other: +500.
34. Will There Be a Lost Fumble in the Second Half? (Yes: +125, No: -160 on FanDuel Sportsbook)
Teams that make it this far are usually elite at taking care of the football – and that trend certainly carries over to this season, with both teams ranking inside the top 10 in fewest turnovers. The Buccaneers finished with the second-fewest lost fumbles in the NFL (five), and didn’t lose a single fumble in 497 offensive plays in the second half of their 16 regular-season games. The Chiefs lost nine fumbles, but just three after halftime. Don’t expect either team to drop the ball – literally – in the second half of the Super Bowl.
33. Longest Successful Field Goal (Over 47.5 yards: -115, Under 47.5 yards: -115 on Fox Bet)
This game is expected to be a touchdown-heavy slugfest – so how to we handicap the field goal landscape as it pertains to this prop bet? These teams had just six combined field goal attempts of 50+ yards during the regular season, with Tampa Bay’s season long of 50 yards among the shortest in the league. And while there were three field goals kicked in the previous meeting in Week 12, those measured 19, 29 and 26 yards. Don’t expect many long FG tries this weekend.
32. Tom Brady Rushing Yards (Over 0.5: +165, Under 0.5: -210 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
The sportsbooks aren’t expecting TB12 to run. In fact, they’re so certain he won’t that they’re offering a -210 return on your bet that Brady won’t gain a single rushing yard at the Super Bowl (more specifically, that he’ll finish with zero or fewer). We have plenty of historical data to work with re: Brady in the Super Bowl, and it turns out that he has finished with positive rushing yards five times and zero or negative rushing yards on four occasions. Also notable: He has just 10 total rush attempts in his nine SB appearances.
31. Position of Super Bowl MVP (Quarterback: -278, Non-quarterback: +225 on BetMGM)
On one hand, there appears to be some value in the non-quarterback play here; of the 55 players crowned Super Bowl MVP (Harvey Martin and Randy White shared the award at Super Bowl XII), quarterbacks make up just over half. However, if we factor in only games featuring 50 or more points – and it certanily looks like this game is headed in that direction – the numbers are much more one-sided, with 17 quarterback winners and only six non-QB recipients.
30a. What Will Happen First For the Chiefs? (Punt: -125, Score: +105 on William Hill)
30b. What Will Happen First For the Buccaneers? (Punt: -125, Score: +105 on William Hill)
Oddsmakers are giving both Super Bowl participants identical odds on what their first outcome will be (turnovers are omitted from this particular prop). Here’s a look at how each team’s opening drives went during the regular season:
Kansas City Chiefs: Five touchdowns, three field goals, seven punts, one interception
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Five touchdowns, two field goals, eight punts, one lost fumble
Given the cumulative success rate for these teams during the season, you’re looking at an even 50-50 split between scores and punts – making the “Score” option for either team’s Super Bowl prop the superior play based on 2020 results.
29. Most Points Scored, 1st vs. 4th Quarter (1st Quarter: +185, 4th Quarter: -240 on FanDuel Sportsbook)
This wager won’t make you rich by any means (unless you decide to significantly bump up the number of units you’re playing), but it certainly feels like one of the safer plays that won’t require a 20-dollar bet for a one-dollar profit. Not only did both teams average at least two more fourth-quarter points than first-quarter points during the regular season, but Brady-led teams have scored exactly three first-quarter points in his first eight Super Bowl appearances. Yep, really.
28. Daniel Sorenson Tackles + Assists (Over 5.5: -118, Under 5.5: -118 on Fox Bet)
Why is this prop so interesting? My goal is to combine fun, silly or eye-popping plays with ones that I believe are slam dunks – and this one is whispering to Over bettors. Sorenson was the Chiefs’ runaway leader in solo tackles (68) and total tackles (91), and has recorded six or more tackles and assists in eight of his last 11 games. That includes a seven-tackle (four solo, three assist) performance against Brady in Week 12. If you’re a Fox Bet user, you gotta play this one.
27. Will the Opening Kickoff Result in a Touchback? (Yes: -305, No: +230 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
Here’s another example of a prop that might be popular among casual bettors simply because it seems so straight-forward. The Buccaneers and Chiefs were two of the most successful teams during the regular season at forcing opposing teams to start on their own 25-yard line, with Tampa Bay ranking second in the NFL in kickoff touchback percentage (84.3) and the Chiefs not far behind in fourth (75.5). Don’t expect to see any Desmond Howard-like highlight reels at Super Bowl LV.
26. How Many 1st-Quarter Points Will the Buccaneers Score? (Over 3.5: -133, Under 3.5: +105 on BetMGM)
I’m sorry, but I couldn’t resist one more fun poke at Brady’s immense first-quarter struggles at the Super Bowl. With just three points scored in the first quarters of his eight trips to The Big Game, you could hardly blame bookmakers for attaching a lower payout to Tampa’s U3.5 play than that of the Chiefs, who are -175 to score four or more points in the first 15 minutes and +135 to score three or fewer. And while the Bucs have averaged 5.5 first-quarter points this season, that average drops to 3.9 at home.
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25a. Number of Chiefs With at Least one Reception (Over 7: -135, Under 7: +115 on William Hill)
25b. Number of Buccaneers With at Least one Reception (Over 7.5: -200, Under 7.5: +175 on William Hill)
How many players on each team will have a catch in the Super Bowl? I’ve listed this prop because it appears to be a great opportunity to capitalize on Kansas City’s condensed sphere of receiving options. Only six Chiefs players have caught a pass through the team’s first two postseason games, with one of those players (Demarcus Robinson) having just one catch to his credit. Six different KC players had a reception in last year’s Super Bowl, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see that as the magic number this year, as well.
24. Which QB Will Get Sacked First? (Mahomes: -125, Brady: +100 on FanDuel Sportsbook)
Don’t expect to see a lot of sack dances this weekend. Among quarterbacks who made at least 15 starts this season, only three finished with fewer sacks than Brady, who was taken down just 21 times in 16 games. Mahomes had a virtually identical sack line with 22 takedowns in 15 games. It might seem counterintuitive to favor the 43-year-old who moves like a golem over the 25-year-old who can scramble for days – but credit Brady for using his incredible vision and instincts (while also taking advantage of a strong offensive line).
23. Chiefs Win/Score 21+ Points/Mahomes 225+ Passing Yards (-138 on Fox Bet)
Fox Bet allows users to submit custom wagers that are then approved for use by everyone – and this bet stands out as one of the most likely to occur. Mahomes has averaged more than 311 passing yards in Kansas City’s 16 regular-season and playoff victories this season, while the Chiefs scored more than 21 points in all but one of those wins. If KC wins, the last two plays on this card are almost certain to happen, as well – so why not take this wager at lower odds over the straight moneyline?
22. Jersey Number of First Touchdown Scorer (Under 24.5: -103, Over 24.5: -121 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
Ooh, this is a fun one! Let’s take a look at where the touchdowns came from during the regular season. The Chiefs received 30 touchdowns from players who wear jerseys No. 1 to 24, and 23 scores from players with jersey numbers at 25 or higher. The Buccaneers, on the other hand, saw 28 touchdowns from players in the 1-24 range and 30 TDs from players who wear a jersey number of 25 or higher. With a 58-55 edge in favor of the Under, there might be modest value in that choice for the Super Bowl.
21. Will There Be Overtime? (Yes: +900, No: -5000 on BetMGM)
You’re really taking a risk on the “Yes” option here, with only one game in Super Bowl history decided beyond 60 minutes – and while I don’t want to further irk Atlanta Falcons fans, that one probably shouldn’t have gone to overtime in the first place. That said, there have been 19 Super Bowls decided by just one score, so we’ve had more than our share of close calls in The Big Game – and given how closely contested that Week 12 meeting was, perhaps we’ll see overtime No. 2 in 2021.
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20. Team With the Most Penalties Wins (Yes: +110, No: -130 on William Hill)
This one feels like a pretty simple opportunity to make a little cash, with seven of the last eight Super Bowls won by the team with fewer penalties. The Chiefs, however, are a big of an enigma this year; as mentioned earlier, they had the second-most penalties in the NFL during the regular season at 115 while also finishing with a minus-16 penalty differential. If any team can win without discipline, it’s this one.
19. Who Will Record the Chiefs’ First Reception? (Travis Kelce: +210, Tyreek Hill: +260 on FanDuel Sportsbook)
Kelce and Hill aren’t the only players mentioned in this prop, of course, but they have the best odds of anyone on the team. I’m not offering a pick suggestion here, just some interesting trends. For one, Hill finished with a whopping 13 more first-quarter targets (43 to 30) and catches (29 to 21) than Kelce, though these stats were no doubt padded by the truly unbelievable first-quarter effort he had against the Buccaneers in November. Hill also saw more targets and catches in the opening 15 minutes than in any other quarter this season.
18. Tom Brady Wins Super Bowl MVP + Tyreek Hill Scores 2+ TDs (+1000 on Fox Bet)
I’m going back to the Custom Bets feature for this play – and this is what they call “threading the needle”. On the surface, it might seem like a complete long shot for both events to happen. But the Chiefs are a modest 7-4 SU when Hill records multiple TDs, with two of those victories coming by three or fewer points (including that Week 12 win over Tampa Bay). If the Bucs win, Brady will almost certainly be the catalyst – and Hill is going to be a big part of the Kansas City attack regardless of the outcome.
17. Chiefs to Score First and Win (+163 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
On one hand, Kansas City has won all but one of the games this season (regular season and playoffs) in which it scored first. But that didn’t happen nearly as often as you might expect for a team with a cumulative 16-2 record. The Chiefs scored first in just seven of their first 18 games in 2020, which makes you wonder just how dominant they would have looked had they not gotten off to such consistently slow starts. (BONUS PROP: Consider taking Tampa Bay as the first team to score at -114).
16. Tom Brady and Patrick Mahomes to Both Record 375+ Passing Yards (+800 on BetMGM)
Let’s get wild! If this game turns into the slugfest football fans hope it will, we could very well see both teams abandon the run altogether and look to outgun the other side. Both of these QBs have proven capable of blowing things wide open offensively; Mahomes has four games of 375 or more passing yards this season (along with a 372-yard effort) while Brady has five games in which he has finished with 360 or more passing yards. Could both guys reach the mark Sunday? Certainly.
15. Which Number Will be Higher? (Longest Field Goal: +240, Total Points: -300 on William Hill)
The total points option is significantly higher in this prop, and with good reason. We could easily see 50+ points in this game, and the Super Bowl record for longest field goal remains 54 yards, set by Buffalo’s Steve Christie at Super Bowl XXVIII. There’s also the issue of kickers struggling mightily in The Big Game, with field goals being converted at a modest 70 percent over the past 11 Super Bowl games. You’re much more likely to see a 50-point game Sunday than a made 50-yard field goal.
14. Coin Toss (Heads: -103, Tails: -103 on FanDuel Sportsbook)
How nice of some sportsbooks to lower the juice on the coin toss! They know that it’ll be one of the most popular bets of the year – never mind just the Super Bowl – and so it makes sense to do something to lure bettors their way. If this sort of thing impacts your betting choice (and it probably shouldn’t), tails is the superior choice historically, having come up 29 times compared to 25 instances for heads. Tails has also landed in five of the previous seven Super Bowls.
13. More Receiving Yards (Travis Kelce: -333, All Buccaneers TEs Combined: +220 on Fox Bet)
Do the Buccaneers’ tight ends even stand a chance on this one? Probably not. Kelce has put together one of the most dominant seasons by a tight end in the history of the sport, hauling in 105 passes for 1,416 yards and 11 touchdowns while threatening (but ultimately falling short) to be the first TE to lead the league in receiving yards. He had 118 and 109 yards, respectively, in Kansas City’s previous two playoff games, and will be leaned on heavily in this one. Barring injury, this should be an easy money play for sports bettors.
12. Total Yards of Longest TD (Over 45.5: -114, Under 45.5: -114 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
This strikes me as an odd prop given that there have been so few big-play touchdowns in recent years. Since 2010, we’ve seen just three touchdowns of longer than 40 yards – and two of those were kickoff returns (also, Jacoby Jones is responsible for two of those, in case you had forgotten just how weird Super Bowl XLVII was). There has been only one passing TD of longer than 40 yards since 2013, and zero rushing scores that long since 2006 (Willie Parker shout-out!) I like the Under a whole lot more than the Over here.
11. Will The Margin of Victory Be Exactly 3 Points? (Yes: +400, No: -556 on BetMGM)
The Super Bowl is usually a close game. The Chargers and Bengals might disagree, of course, but that’s a fact: 33 of the 54 Super Bowls prior to this season have been decided by 14 or fewer points, with 19 of those finishing with a gap of seven or fewer points. And with this game expected to be a close one, you could certainly take a shot on either of the most common margins of victory in Super Bowl history (though you’re much more likely to find odds on the three-point margin than the four-point gap).
10. Which Total Will be Higher? (Buccaneers Points (+1.5): -110; Steph Curry Points (-1.5): -110 on William Hill)
Cross-over bet? Cross-over bet! And this one’s a doozy, with the Tampa Bay offense up against the greatest pure shooter in the history of basketball. For what it’s worth, Curry and the Golden State Warriors face the host Dallas Mavericks the night before the Super Bowl; he has yet to face the rival Mavs this season but averaged a sizzling 35.0 points per game in two meetings with Dallas in 2019-20, his last fully healthy season. If he’s running that hot, it’ll be tough for the Bucs to keep pace.
9. Length of Patrick Mahomes’ First TD Pass (Over 13.5 Yards: +110, Under 13.5 Yards: -145 on FanDuel Sportsbook)
As tempting as it might be to take the Over here, Mahomes’ recent and playoff history offer giant red flags. Only 15 of his 38 touchdown passes during the 2020 regular season went over 14 yards, and just five of his 17 career postseason TD strikes have surpassed that total. And while you might point to that Week 12 game (where all three of Hill’s TD catches went for 20 or more yards), I highly doubt the Bucs are going to let that happen again. The Under is a strong play given the odds.
8. Patrick Mahomes and Tom Brady With 2 TD Passes Each (-120 +100 on Fox Bet)
What better time to promote what should be one of Fox Bet’s most popular bet boosts? This parlay was originally priced at -120, but is now offering a straight double-your-money payout – and you have to like the chances of both starting quarterbacks tossing multiple touchdown passes. Mahomes had 2+ TD passes in 14 of 17 games this season, while Brady hit the mark in 16 of 19 games. In other words, you’re probably doubling your money with this wager – so don’t miss out!
7. Will Any FG or XP Hit the Uprights/Crossbar? (Yes: +400, No: -625 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
It’s the Doink Prop! Who doesn’t love the thought of rooting for a kick to bounce off an upright – or even better, the crossbar? I don’t have much in the way of research here, so I’ll fill this space with my personal favorite carom moment: The Quadruple Doink. I won’t spoil it for you, only to say that if you love footballs bouncing off every part of the upright, this video belongs in your collection.
6. Will There Be a Punt Return for a Touchdown? (Yes: +900, No: -1667 on BetMGM)
In the 54-year history of the Super Bowl, there has never been a punt return for a touchdown. Not one. So if you’re looking to turn a $50 bet into a $3 profit, history is certainly on your side with this prop. There were eight punt-return TDs during the 2020 regular season, including one by Kansas City speedster Mecole Hardman. Tampa Bay, on the other hand, hasn’t had a regular season punt return for a touchdown since Dec. 27, 2009. This bet seems pretty safe.
5. Patrick Mahomes Pass Attempts vs. LeBron James Points/Rebounds/Assists (-110 for each on William Hill)
Two of the top players in their respective sports square off in what should be one of the most entertaining cross-over props to track. For perspective’s sake, Mahomes averaged 39.2 pass attempts per game during the regular season and is at 34 per game so far in the postseason. James, whose Lakers host the Detroit Pistons the night before the Super Bowl, comes into this week averaging a combined 40.5 points, rebounds and assists.
4. Will There Be a Scoreless Quarter? (Yes: +550, No: -1000 on FanDuel Sportsbook)
You don’t have to go far to find the last time two teams went an entire quarter without scoring: Super Bowl LIII, when the Patriots and Rams kicked things off with a big ol’ pair of goose-eggs en route to the lowest-scoring NFL title game in history. And prior to that, the Patriots and Atlanta Falcons opened Super Bowl LI with a scoreless first quarter. So don’t rule out the Yes play here, no matter how prolific these teams were during the season.
3. Both D/STs to Score a Touchdown (+2800 on Fox Bet)
I just can’t resist the Custom Bets – so here’s one more. I feel much more confident in the Chiefs holding up their end of the bargain; they had four D/ST touchdowns this season, including one kick return, one punt return and a pair of interception returns. The Bucs? They had just one D/ST score in 2020, a Jamel Dean 32-yard INT-return TD in a 38-10 win over Green Bay on Oct. 18. This is the longest of longshots – but you never know!
2. Will an Offensive or Defensive Lineman Score a TD? (Yes: +800, No: -2000 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
Ladies and gentlemen, I present to you: The Fat Man TD Prop. Don’t believe that’s what it’s actually called? Check it out for yourself. Touchdowns by offensive or defensive lineman are incredibly rare in the Super Bowl, though we saw nine linemen reach the end zone during the 2020 regular season – and yes, there is a Chiefs player on that list. But with touchdown scorer Eric Fisher forced to miss Sunday’s game with an Achilles injury, the chances of the Yes cashing take a significant hit.
1. What Color Will the Gatorade Bath Be? (on BetMGM)
In what will be forever remembered as the strangest NFL season on record, it’s nice to know that the championship game will still end with a modicum of normalcy – that is, if you consider dumping a freezing-cold vat of sugary liquid on the head of the winning coach “normal”. Orange will be a popular option, having been the color of choice in five of the past 11 Super Bowl hydration showers. And only one other color (blue) appeared more than once in that span.
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